<honestly, californiaaa,="" not="" sure="" what="" you’ve="" learned="" from="" the="" cc="" dialogue.="" when="" your="" kid="" applies,="" other="" than="" some="" connections="" you="" may="" have="" at="" employer,="" i="" hope="" mind="" is="" more="" open.="" anecdotes="" don’t="" make="" universal="" truths.=""></honestly,>
I suggest my D to apply to as many schools as possible. You never know, what is a reach school and what is a safety. My husband applied to over 50 graduate programs. He was accepted by two (MIT and Stanford) and rejected by everyone else, including Wayne State and University of Kalamazoo.
Luckily, Univ of California has one application form for all campuses, including Berkeley and Merced. My D is applying to all campuses. Plus as many other schools as possible, through the Common Application. Plus, several UK / Canada unis.