I’m all for people applying aspirationally, but that has to be weighed against the odds. I don’t know OP, but with an otherwise flat application, i.e., not spikey, they probably should look for better odds elsewhere. Nothing precludes a “wing and a prayer” RD application later, but they should make the best use of whatever advantage early applications provide. I’m generally an optimistic guy, heck, I buy lottery tickets knowing the odds, and nobody would call me a Debbie Downer, but OP, play the hand you got dealt.