Is a 40-45% chance of getting into Cal Poly San Luis Obispo good or bad?

I will be applying for AG Business.
I have good grades, lots of AP, I am self-training to take even more AP tests, volunteer all the time, raise and rescue livestock, am a ranch hand, won 1st place awards in AG at my high school, won 1st place awards at the fair for AG as well (those were both for AG Mech).

Are those chances good? I would absolutely love to go there. I am also applying to their feeder JC just in case- and will be on a program to transfer.
Thanks.

It depends upon your test scores, Cal poly GPA and HS course rigor since SLO emphasizes these areas. A 40- 45% chance based on what, acceptance rate? It means nothing if you are not at least competitive based on average GPA and test scores for your major and college.

Check link to see where you stand:

http://admissions.calpoly.edu/prospective/profile.html

Also calculate your MCA

http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/cal-poly-san-luis-obispo/1694769-confused-about-mca-score.html