Is a "top college" worth it?

Applying to College
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There are a few issues. One is I think you are reading far too much in to the predictive power of SAT/ACT – how well it predicts whether students will fell overwhelmed in college, how well it predicts whether a student will understand the class material, how well it predicts whether the student will feel bored in class, and how well it predicts academic success . SAT/ACT may correlate well with outcome in a small handful of anecdotal personal experiences. However, larger reviews often find much weaker correlations. They also find that the limited predictive ability of SAT/ACT is largely duplicated by other available portions of application.

For example, having a solid foundation is correlated with SAT/ACT, but it is also correlated with taking rigorous classes in high school that are similar to the foundation classes that pre-med students will take during college. If you control for this by comparing 2 students who took the same rigorous high school classes that well prepare for pre-med classes, but had different SAT/ACT scores, then that difference in scores is much less predictive than score in isolation without considering high school preparation for pre-med classes.

This relates to why test optional studies usually find that test submitter kids and non-submitter kids have similar average grades. One of many examples is the Bates 25 years of test optional report at https://www.bates.edu/admission/files/2014/01/25th-Year-SAT-report-Stanford-6.3.11-wch.ppt are below:

Mean SAT Score: Submitters: ~620/~620 , Non-Submitters: ~540/~535
Mean Graduation Rate: Submitters = 89%, Non-Submitters = 89%
Mean College GPA: Submitters = 3.16, Non-Submitters = 3.12

At more selective colleges, where scores have a more limited range with the overwhelming portion of students having high grades, the predictive power of differentiating between students is weaker. For example , the study at https://web.archive.org/web/20100624151156/http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1014&context=student tries to predict Cornell student grades with a model including HS grades, class rank, ACT score, SAT individual scores, race, hook group, high school characteristics, and many other factors. The full model explained 24% of variance in GPA. The vast majority of variance in college GPA between Cornell students depended on other factors beyond the listed ones. With stats being more compressed today, I’d expect the predive power to be weaker today. Academic success in college and the many other discussed factors depend on far more than stats or how stats compare to peer students. Stats often explain a small minority of variance in academic performance.
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A second important issue is that all colleges do not give the same portion of A grades in pre-med classes. In general, as a large portion of students are well prepared and do high quality work, the portion of students receiving A grades goes up. At more selective private colleges where a larger portion of students are well prepared and do high quality work, the most common grade is typically A. At less selective colleges where a larger portion of students are not well prepared, the most common grade is often not A.

For example, the 2021 Harvard senior survey indicates that the median self-reported GPA of Harvard students approximately 3.9. It’s not just the top 25% of the class who are getting A grades. Is a kid who is not in top 25%, but gets an A still going to feel discouraged because he doesn’t get it in the way you describe? Harvard’s CDS lists a 75th percentile ACT of 36. Would you tell a 34 ACT kid to avoid attending Harvard because his 34 is well below 75th percentile score of 36, so he is unlikely to be academically successful? Should he attend his public safety instead where the portion receiving A grades is far lower?

If a student believes he/she has a weaker high school foundation, rather than comparing test scores to other students, a better idea might be to look at what the college does to support kids with his/her type of high school foundation. Continuing with the Harvard, example, they have all kids take placement tests and a variety to help choose appropriate starting point and level for first year math/science, such that kids who are behind have a good opportunity to catch up. They don’t just throw everyone in the deep end and see who succeeds and who fails.

For example you mentioned calculus being taught at a different level in different colleges. Following the placement test, a Harvard student might start at any of the following math levels – Math Ma,b; 1a,b; 19a,b; 20; 21a,b; 23a,b; 25a,b; and 55a,b. The lowest level (MA) is a half normal speed calc/pre-calc type class, while Harvard’s website describes math 55 as “probably the most difficult undergraduate math class in the country”. They don’t “teach to the level they have coming in,” assuming everyone is at the same level. Many colleges offer similar types of support to help students with relative weaker HS backgrounds, but I wouldn’t assume test score range correlates well with availability of such support.

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As I said, YMMV. I’ll go by what I see happening IRL and make my suggestions accordingly. You’re welcome to present your thoughts too, of course.

I will note that you are using Harvard and Cornell where essentially all of the students are in the group of students that I already said would have no problem going anywhere - similar to the OP. They’ve proven they can be competitive with anyone out there. You are also talking “success” in general, which I also said I’m specifically not talking about.

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Your earlier comments said the OP’s 35/36 ACT was in the top 25% pretty much anywhere. Not all Harvard and Cornell students meet this description. Among test submitters, the 25th percentile ACT for both Cornell and Harvard was 33 in 2021. If you include non-submitters, 25th percentile is probably notably lower than 33. If you instead meant anyone with a 30+ type ACT and good enough application to get into an ivy will have no problem going anywhere, that isn’t how I understood the post.

" You’re in the Top 25% pretty much anywhere, and there’s not much difference between a 35/36 ACT. It’s students who tend to be in the lower 75% of the incoming class that can struggle at first due to less of a foundation."

My earlier post emphasizes SAT/ACT influence on college GPA / getting A grades and being well prepared for pre-med foundation classes, even if each point was not specific to only pre-meds. The quoted word “success” only appears once in the post, which was specified as “academic success” and implied to mean high grades.

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I will assume that the two posters above are done. If not, I’ll ask that their discussion about the predictive ability of the SAT and ACT be taken to PM.

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I have been reading this thread for a few days but somehow managed to not reply. I thought that I would give my view, which largely agrees with the excellent advice already given. I do not have immediate family members who are human doctors, but have discussed similar issues with a couple of doctors that I know and have several family members in medicine either in other roles, or studying to be a DVM.

On the scale of the schools that you mentioned in your original post (approximately U of Arkansas to UVM to Vanderbilt), I do not think that which university you attend is likely to have much impact at all on your chances of being admitted to a good medical school. The doctors that I know have told me that the other students in their MD program have come from a very, very wide range of undergraduate universities.

At least in our experience graduate school admissions seems to be very good at accounting for the difference of difficulty in different universities. As one example (but not in medicine) I attended MIT for undergrad. I got into Stanford for a graduate program with a GPA that probably would not have been sufficient if I was coming from anywhere other than MIT or Caltech (or maybe Harvey Mudd). However, if I had attended an undergraduate school other than MIT (or Caltech or HMC) I probably would have had a higher undergraduate GPA and had the same chance of getting into Stanford for a graduate program. The other students in the same program had come from a very wide range of universities.

One daughter is currently studying in a highly ranked DVM program. She tells me the other students in the same program come from a very wide range of undergraduate programs. We saw the same thing when we watched the orientation for incoming students and they announced where each student came from. She also tells me that most students are taking on too much debt, which comes to the next point…

Medical school is expensive. The cost of attendance at the various universities that you listed is likely to vary quite a bit. I would try very hard to avoid debt for your bachelor’s degree. If you can save some money in the college fund for graduate or medical school that would be even better.

The only schools that we saw in this price range were either in-state public schools, or were in Canada (we have dual citizenship which helped with the Canadian schools). We did not qualify for need based aid, but since you have divorced/remarried parents this might make need based aid more difficult to predict. We did not look at some of the southern schools that are known for good merit based aid.

And, of the students who arrive as freshman at university intending to be premed, I have heard that the majority never end up applying to medical school. I have also heard that the majority of students who apply to medical school do not get in anywhere. Both daughters had majors that overlapped quite a bit with premed classes (one is currently studying for a DVM, the other is currently doing biotech research). Both have reported that the various premed classes that they took were tough, were full of very strong students, and were effective in weeding out students who were not going to make it to medical school. One mentioned that the first midterm in her first “biology for biology majors” class had a class average of about 45. I took this as an indication that the university was trying to do the freshmen a big favor by giving half of them a hint that they should at least start to think about other career options.

Which gets to the next point that you might want to continue to pursue a career in medicine, but also think about what other options might interest you. Then think about whether any of the schools on your list would be a good fit if you do pursue a different option.

In terms of what opportunities will be available at each school: I have seen that the top ranked universities have a lot of opportunities. However, they are also full of strong students competing for these opportunities. Less highly ranked universities will have opportunities also. A top student at any “top 200” university is likely to find good opportunities. One daughter for example attended a small university in Canada that you have probably never heard of. She got involved in a couple of different very interesting research opportunities there (including applying for and winning a government grant to continue her research over the summer). One of the research projects that she did in Canada was somewhat similar to the biotech research that she is now doing at a job back here in the US.

Of the schools on your list, I am probably most familiar with UVM. Of course it is not ranked quite a high as some of the other schools on your list (eg, Vanderbilt or WUSTL). However, UVM is a very good university in a very attractive location (as long as you are okay with real winters). In addition to having a good premed program, they also have a very good pre-vet program which pulls in some strong students. You will share premed classes there with students who are going to eventually become good doctors as well as other students who are going to be reaching inside a cow (in their cream program) and later becoming good veterinarians. They also have a hospital on campus which provides opportunities to get some experience in a medical situation without needing to go too far. You might want to see which of the other schools have a hospital nearby.

Given your excellent stats I think that your chances of a merit scholarship is quite good at UVM, but it will still probably cost at least $40,000 per year out of state. Their NPC will predict merit aid (correctly in our case). I am not convinced that you should take on debt to attend UVM.

Music is a tough way to make a living. I know a professor of music, and one daughter (the one currently studying for a DVM) did seriously consider a career in music. She decided to go a different way.

I have heard that there are so many biology majors who are premed who do not make it to medical school that it is tough for a biology major to get a good job if they do not go into medicine. With this I was a bit surprised how quickly and easily my biologist daughter got a good job once she started looking here in the US. My guess is that the issue is that she was focused in biotech research and lab work from day 1 (of her sophomore year). This caused her to get the lab experience that helped her get a good job in a biotech lab. If you want to do something in biology that is not medicine, you might want to similarly try to get experience while you are an undergraduate student that is in an area of biology that interests you. Internships and coop programs can be quite valuable in this respect.

At least in my opinion, to answer your original question, I am dubious about whether the really top ranked universities are worth the price for a bachelor’s degree unless either (i) You get very good financial aid; or (ii) You can afford to attend them without taking on debt. I might give a different answer for a graduate program.

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This was very helpful, thank you!

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