I wouldn’t apply to UCB. Your odds of getting in as an OOS applicant are low to start with, and your GPA will be a sticking factor & make it even less likely. PLUS it sounds like you can’t afford it, which makes it a wasted application fee, IMO. Nowadays, with the glut of Super Smart And Awesome kids all going to Super Awesome Colleges, many with business degrees, there’s just not promise of getting a job, let alone a great job, let alone one that will pay you enough to pay off loans. Undergraduate business degrees are a crapshoot in terms of guaranteeing you a lucrative job post-grad. If you’re really interested in business, the far smarter plan is to major in something else at a school you can attend debt-free, then apply to a competitive MBA program and hope to get accepted to one that throws money at you.
It’s also hard to accurately chance you because I think your predictions, while they may come true, are edging on the side of over-confident. You assume you’ll be able to get a 2300 on your SATs b/c your family tests well. That’s awesome! But you never know. Ditto, predicting your GPA… I guess I’m skeptical that you can bring it up to a 3.9 from a 3.6 between now and senior year. That’s a huge jump. I would make your application plans based on the 3.6 GPA and of course hope for the best (upward trends can only work in your favor!). And of course, once your real stats roll in, repost on CC so you can be more accurately chanced.
Your list doesn’t have any real safeties, IMO… I don’t think of Penn as a safety for most people! Are they likely to offer you money? I would find some schools with 50% or higher admit rates + are known for merit aid. You want to find places where your stats are better than the average/top 25% admitted, so you’re competitive for merit aid. The figure skating thing is really cool and will make for interesting essays, but I don’t think it would make you an auto-admit at any hyper competitive school. I think you’ve in NoVA too, which makes it even more competitive if you plan to stay on the East Coast. You’re essentially competing against your regional peers, who are nationally known for being insanely smart/having perfect GPAs/perfect SATs, etc. So I would take off UCB and find at least one true safety–where financial obligation factors into making the school “safe”–your parents can either afford to pay for it, or they are likely to offer you a lot of money. And nail down a figure with your parents of what they can really afford–what’s the most they can contribute per year? Do not go to any school where you have to take out more than, say, 30K loans over four years… but take out NO loans if you can. Loan repayments are no joke, and suck up a huge chunk of your income for years, sometimes decades.
I’m sorry to be a downer! I do think you’ll have a very interesting application, actually, and any school that considers applicants holistically you’ll have a shot. But the trick with a lot of schools is you still have to meet their minimum profile threshold to be considered holistically, so at schools where you’re competing with 50% of the applicants having 4.0 GPAs, etc… you’ll have to fight harder to get to the essay evaluation round. But at less competitive schools, you’ll have greater odds of consideration + standing out (and getting merit aid). Your instinct is right to find schools that consider applicants holistically. Good luck!