Is Class of 2026 An Outlier Year for College Admissions?

Applying to College
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Is 2026 (graduating HS 2022) an outlier year in terms of number of applicants and/or applications at the top 50 colleges?

Are we seeing essentially two classes years of students applying in the same year (the gap year students from the class of 2025 plus students in the the current year)? Does this account for the increased competition and application volume?

Will standardized tests be back next year at many competitive colleges?

Have the standardized testing policies at many colleges hurt applicants with high standardized test scores?

Would students be advantaged in taking a gap year and applying next year?

It seems classes prior to the class of 2023 (graduating HS in 2019) were significantly less chaotic and more uniform in acceptance prediction than the years since. Is this a correct observation?

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I think this year is the first (or second- Iā€™d suggest this new trend began last year) year of a new/developing trend in college applications: increased applications leading to chaos as schools attempt to manage their yield leading to increased student anxiety about acceptances resulting in increased numbers of applicationsā€¦.rinse, repeat.

  1. Iā€™d guess that gap year students are a relatively small percentage of the applicants because some of them were more likely deferrals than students who decided to forgo applying all together for Fall 22 with the intent to apply as freshman for fall 23.

  2. I think TO is here to stay for atleast the next few admissions cycles and if those classes perform well I could see it as a permanent change. I think youā€™ll also see some schools moving to follow the test-blind or no test required option.

  3. Gap years can be useful if a student is feeling burnt out and needs a refresh or to work on their mental health, needs a bit of maturing, needs/wants to make money or perhaps has an activity or interest they want to pursue before beginning college. In general itā€™s not going to fix a less competitive application or make a competitive one measurably better.

  4. Every year people complain about the admissions process. Some people are happy with their results while others are not. Iā€™d venture those feelings are linked to parental and student expectations that are not well aligned with what colleges are actually doing as far as shaping their classes. Many parents view the admissions process thru the lens of how things worked for them in 1980s and 1990s rather than how things are the 2020s. They also fail to realize how many thousands of remarkably accomplished students are applying to each of the T25-/+ schools. They mostly compare their own student to those in their childā€™s HS class and thatā€™s a very small microcosm/sample size. There are thousands of vals and sals graduating every year: many more than the seats available at those T25 schools, especially once you subtract out the hooked applicants. Expand that to include the top 5-10 kids per class and thatā€™s a huge number of kids competing for a relatively small number of spots.

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I can only speak for the California UCā€™s and now Cal states but they are permanently test blind. Freshman applications are still on an upward trend for the last 8-10 years for the UCā€™s. More noticeable since going test blind last year. Also larger waitlists. Gap years at least for the UCā€™s would not be beneficial.

A mixed bag for the Cal states with Increases in applications for some campuses and decreases in others.

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I have two daughters - one that graduated in 2020 and one this year (2022). Both were/are top of their class, high performing, etc. Went to the same all-girls private school here in Baltimore, MD. Iā€™m not going to do all the stats but will say that most, including the school, would say the 2022 student has a stronger application to offer.

I can tell you first hand that this year (and last year - the Covid years) are nothing like the 2020 year. The number of applications to top schools are so much higher. And, the test optional aspect has drastically changed the game. Students couldnā€™t visit so they put in applications to more places, some that they may never have considered. I canā€™t even believe the difference in just two years.

Even with covid and the full lockdown, for my oldest, apps had been submitted in 2020. so visiting may have been difficult, accepted student days cancelled, etc, but the process was pretty much locked in. All deadlines had passed for applying in 2020. And, tests were required for the most part except for the smaller list of schools that had already gone optional.

Those testing requirements had sort of a ā€œguard railā€ effect - not always, but for the most part, kids self-selected or were guidance-counseled out of a school that they didnā€™t meet the test score range. There was sort of a pre-filter. Thatā€™s totally gone. Our college counselor basically said that itā€™s like a candy store for admissions. They still have their percentages to go for, but when they get to the rest, they can take any student and are getting more varied applications.

For the most part, the early acceptances in 2020 would never have happened this year. I firmly believe that bc deferring has become a strategy to manage these higher numbers. And to factor in international student numbers or gap students or other factors. Cancelled study abroad programs means campus may not have room for the usual classes. The gap numbers coming into a small college are hugely influential in their admissions.

The biggest difference in the apps in my girls besides subject interests (one more a language and arts, the younger is Comp Sci/STEM) was their test scores. 2020 grad got a 1440. My 2022 got a 1580 (800 on math), and itā€™s just not really been a factor bc so many applications went in to these schools. Sure, itā€™s a positive and she includes it. But it used to carry so much more weight.

(My oldest applied ED to Davidson, btw, and was accepted early.

My 2022 is still in the process but applied ED to Williams which has dropped now to an 8% acceptance rate for two (covid) years in a row. She was deferred in ED and denied in RD. It was 3% (three!) for the RD pool. I do not believe that would have been the case two plus years ago. Sheā€™s been accepted to some wonderful schools and has more to hear from, so weā€™re not fixated. Itā€™s just a pure, drastic numbers change that dreadfully hurt the student that would have loved to go there. )

In the end, itā€™s hard to be upset because even my daughter will say that she loves that more students have more opportunities. Even with her SAT score, sheā€™s philosophically opposed to the ā€œtesting industrial complexā€ bc it can be managed with better resources. As a STEM/Comp Sci kid, she felt she could not apply to a program without showing her merit in the testing area (and honestly, itā€™s well suited to that kind of student, right?)

This is all obviously my perspective, but there was a article with shocking graphs on her around Dec. Iā€™ll see if I can find it. When I thought Iā€™d be managing two college application rounds within two years, I never dreamed theyā€™d be so radically different. No idea what that means for the future, but Iā€™ll tell you my 2020 daughter and friends are incredibly grateful they were pre-covid!

PS. My husband and I both graduated from Princeton undergrad. His MBA from Stanford, my MA from Johns Hopkins. My sister went to Stanford undergrad (all of this in the 90s, so I will not liken it to current application process but i mention just to include that weā€™re well familiar with the competitive school application process. NONE of us would get in now! Lol. Itā€™s remarkable.)

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Found the article - I cannot imagine when you add this year but I hope to not see until after my second daughter is settled into a college! Lol.

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I agree that test-optional is here to stay.

I also note that there is a huge divide between what is happening at selective and non-selective schools, as noted in the blog article I posted below. I was surprised that so many students to top schools had applications stuffed with ECs that made it appear a pandemic never took place.

The demographic cliff coming in a few years (that is, a big drop-off in the number of traditional college age students) means that the selective schools have little incentive to make any changes ā€” the problem could take care of itself in a few years. So the next three years could be similar to what this yearā€™s class experienced, and then things could revert to a more predictable model. Or maybe the pandemic will have impacted the grades of enough younger students that the pool vying for the selective schools shrinks before we get to the demographic cliff.

As Pandemic Pushes Higher Ed Closer to Demographic Cliff, Institutions Must Consider Strategic Options | Kaufman Hall.

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Not an outlier but rather a sign of things to come.

In addition to everything stated in posts above, another trend is the uptick in popularity of the large public universities, particularly in the south. Schools that were once many applicantsā€™ safeties, have suddenly become reaches, resulting in surprising deferrals and some denials. Auburn U, for example, has seen a 155% increase in applications from 2020.

Publics like FSU, NC State, UGA & VT continue to ratchet up the stats of incoming students, while UF, UNC & UVA have pretty much become a lottery.

At the same time, merit for many of those known for being generous to a wide variety of stat levels, has decreased significantly - surprising many applicants who counted on being able to go to college in the south for less than their northern in-state publics.

Going forward, the most productive college application lists will have to have a well-crafted mix that focuses less on rank and more on maximizing where they can truly be competitive for admission. It certainly creates an opportunity for the lesser-known colleges to aggressively court the applicant pool and potentially increase their application numbers.

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I donā€™t expect things to get any better anytime soon either. The general trend has been clear for many years. The pandemic only accelerated it.

I used to think that test-optional policies during the pandemic would gradually lead to the disappearance of the tests (i.e. fewer students would test each year as the median test scores at all test-optional colleges rise year after year), but Iā€™m not so sure anymore. MIT apparently is seriously considering requiring tests again, even though test scores played a relatively minor role at a school like MIT prior to the pandemic.

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Canā€™t imagine going test optional indefinitely, especially in STEM disciplines that depend on mathematical skills. To be a bit contrarian, why is an essay required for all majors? Why not give applicants an alternative prompt to create a business plan, or offer a creative solution to an engineering dilemma? Maybe some schools already do this.

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Not an outlier but a continuation of the trends of the last decade plusā€¦

More test optional.
More kids applying to more schools.
More desirability for highly selective schools.
More desirability of schools with merit.
More need by schools to manage enrollment with so much uncertainty (so ED, WL, etc all become more prevalent.)

I think the outlier part for this class is where they fall in the covid cycle. Athletic recruits are experiencing fall out from a year out of athletics, housing suffered from the scuttling of study abroad programs for existing students, enrollment is still wacky from 2020 deferrals and those who sat out the year, limited gap year options, many ECs were unavailable, etc. As a plus, foreign student enrollment has been impacted a bit, but not enough to make up for all those other things.

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Itā€™s not an outlier. The elimination of class rank, grade inflation in high schools, and now test optional has made the selection process ambiguous, which I would argue is precisely what colleges want. They now have free rein to build classes however they like without worry about lawsuits. You can sue over SAT score differences between admitted demographic groups in a way that you just canā€™t when AOs are evaluating 250-word ā€œessaysā€ or judging holistically.

Test optional also gives schools an avenue to manipulate their numbers in a way that test blind doesnā€™t. Just look at how many colleges now exclusively advertise their accepted stats rather than their enrolled stats. Now, they get to say they have a 12% admission rate AND goose their average SAT for the national rankings.

Also, as far as colleges evaluating the switch, I donā€™t know how theyā€™d do that. Grade inflation in colleges is real and continues on an upward trend at most places. Itā€™s going to be hard to tease out that factor. For better or worse, everyone knows the hardest part of selective admissions is getting into the school, not the workload or grades once you get there.

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This is helpful. My DDā€™s older siblings were accepted to multiple Ivies and T10 LACs. She is easily on par or higher on accomplishments and academics with all of them (and youā€™d never know thereā€™d been Covid disruptions for her). So many waitlistsā€¦

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UNC just eliminated test optional. Good for them. I get academiaā€™s rationale for eliminating, but smart admissions officers should use it accordingly based on each applicants profile and situation. Itā€™s just another data point. If disadvantaged, low income - donā€™t use it. If from wealthy area, realize the prep benefit. That or eliminate common app. Randomness is tough for many kids who worked hard and canā€™t distinguish themself on a 250 word essay.

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The entire UNC system only went test optional for 2 years because of Covid, not for any other reason.

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I like the way the UK does it. Students can only apply to 5 universities. They can apply to Oxford or Cambridge but not both.

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That is what most schools said in the beginning. We have not seen many others go back yet.

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There is a lot of good analysis and honesty in this thread.

Test optional allows colleges to socially engineer their class without a loss in score prestige, and inflate their perceived average test scores. When only kids who are above your 50% mark actually send their score to you, or poor testers elect to not even take a standardized test, you very quickly inflate your average test score statistic.

Admissions personnel do not teach or interact with students once they have started their coursework. These arenā€™t professors picking who they want to teach.

Many kids have substantially reduced opportunity for extracurriculars, volunteer work, etc due to COVID blocking out a substantial part of their high school time. Many non-essential activities were cancelled. You would think with less opportunity for extracurriculars there would be MORE focus on scores and grades but there is unfairness there as well.

Schools that deliberately ignore scores like the UC schools are silly to do so. But I agree the trend of test optional will continue because it gives the colleges exactly what they want - admissions social engineering without a hit to ā€œprestige/

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Why is it specifically the southern schools that are getting the uptick of popularity?

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Hopefully the increasing number of test blind schools will result in USNWR removing test scores from their ranking methodology once and for all. Right now test scores are weighted at 5%, and adjusted ā€˜if the combined percentage of the fall 2020 entering class submitting test scores was less than 50% of all new entrants, its combined SAT/ACT percentile distribution value used in the rankings was discounted by 15%ā€™.

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We probably wonā€™t agree on the value of test scores. I personally see them as a critical objective standard to balance out all the subjectivity (and the non-standardized nature of Hs grades) that is involved in the process.

I am willing to acknowledge that part of my bias may be that I have always tested well and my kids have as well.

Without standardized test scores there is almost nothing objective in the process. If equal outcomes for all people regardless of aptitudes or effort is what you want, then elimination of objective criteria is desirable. But I personally believe that effort and skill are a necessary element of success and so I support the use of objective criteria as a support to subjective criteria.

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