Demonstrated interest is a huge thing for some schools. It was talked about by the CC at my daughter’s small school but the CC is a former AO at a top school. My husband is also a former AO and he feels my D23 could be doing more for several schools but like your son, she has had a very busy year and half and the time is hard to find. The EA schools she applied to, she was pretty confident she would be admitted. But she didn’t apply EA at any match or reach schools especially the schools that had EA and ED (ED is not an option for us financially). More of relief getting a few acceptances and then waiting it out for RD. Plus it gives her more time to show interest in the RD schools on her list. Honestly, your son still has time to show interest. So back to the original question do I think EA could backfire for some high stats kids? Yes, I do especially if those kids are full pay and ED is an option as well. I have heard of a few kids deferred from schools they should have been admitted in EA. I don’t feel like ED is backfiring for high stats kids unless of course you truly can’t afford the price and have been admitted. I have no data to support this but just my observations. But again if your son is still interested in the schools he has been deferred from and has the option of being considered for the RD round there is still time for him to show interest. Good luck!
This is a trope that needs to be retired ASAP.
Back in ancient times “should have been admitted” meant a kid with some nice EC’s, grades and scores above the 50% mark.
In the current environment, those are table stakes. That puts the kid in the “admittable” pool, which is several times larger than the “gets admitted” pool.
Honestly, most people have no idea about how deep and talented the national and international pool of HS students is. Most people have no idea what their teachers or guidance counselors wrote about them, or that the “incredibly creative” essay about cultivating sourdough starter and baking bread during the pandemic was done by 30 other applicants- 25 of whom wrote a funnier and more revealing essay.
And a kid has no control over the rest of the applicant pool. Kid plays the viola and volunteers at an animal shelter— you just don’t know what the other viola-playing/animal lover applications look like.
“Also, in terms of colleges that do yield protection, they may assume that if an applicant is URM, the applicant may have more competing offers and be less likely to matriculate.”
I have long wondered this. And more generally, URM or not, whether sometimes colleges that yield protect may be overestimating a high-stats applicant’s chances at other schools - particularly in recent years when TO threw a wrench into yield algorithms and the game of guessing chances.
Agreed I didn’t really convey that properly. The admissions landscape has changed so much in the past couple and even my husband who spent 15+ years in Admissions has said the same.
For the 3.6/1300 kid who gets into, oh, U of Miami –
Mitigating the severity of yield protection, or what we presume to be yield protection, may be that this kid has a specific skill that the school needs in its class.
Sure, some 3.6/1300 kids might be getting in because they went ED, or wrote an essay leaving no doubt that the school is their dream school, a perfect fit, and is held in the very highest esteem… they clicked all the emails, watched the videos, reached out for an interview, asked questions, visited, etc. That kid exemplifies yield protection – as close as you can come to a sure thing in the RD round.
But maybe this 3.6/1300 kid is an elite crochet artist. Maybe the school wants to become known for its crochet club, and this student would be the face of the club. Or maybe she’s an elite trombonist, and the lead trombone just graduated.
Maybe the kid is the only applicant from South Dakota, and that happens to be the only state not represented at the school. So they admit the kid.
So – not every low-stat kid who gets in is admitted due to demonstrated interest. Some of them probably fill needs.
wondering if applying EA was worth it for him even with a hook (URM).
@2CollegeHoosiers - one should always apply EA when offered. In some cases, it’s EA or no chance (UMD for example).
I suppose if a kid is borderline and you’d want to send in first term grades one could wait to RD.
But in general, yes apply EA - and people have to stop assuming that if their kid applied but didn’t get in or was deferred that means they made the wrong choice.
There are no guarantees - but you use things like EA or ED to better your chances.
But this is also why you need a wide swatch of selectivity in your application list.
And wide swath does not mean your own state flagship if you are an EE/CS prospective major where the stats are likely three notches higher than the stats for Early Childhood or Recreation Management.
I am often shocked what the kids I know IRL consider safeties.
Fair point but scattergrams on Naviance are a tool-- and used for a reason. “Should have been admitted” is the same as “safety” which is a term rightfully used all the time.
While I think plenty of families over estimate the prowess of their student, I also think they underestimate the lengths that others will fluff their applications (and in some cases outright lie). I know several kids that checked diversity boxes on the application that would make your head spin. You can’t control it, don’t even know it’s happening but it’s not fair to the kids who play by the rules, do the ECs, write the essays…and should be able estimate what might be a safety based on 12 years of honest hard work.
Safety if you are applying to your own state flagship and majoring in early ed? I agree with you. But safety is a loose concept for CS or another impacted major.
Since Naviance and similar typically are not set up by major or division within a college, they can be misleading at colleges where selectivity varies by major or division.
And a quick point on Naviance… not every HS updates the scattergrams to include the second set of scores (in some cases, the final set after TWO previous sittings). That overstates a kid’s chances of being admitted.
My own local HS did a terrible job of ensuring the accuracy of the data. For colleges still requiring SAT’s, a kid can take first semester junior year and score 1400, and with minimal prep, get a 1520 by fall of senior year. Stronger math prep, more literary analysis in English class, etc. So Naviance shows that kid as “green” with a 1400 when in fact- he got a 1520 which is the score the college considered.
You can only control the controllables - you can’t control what others do. Part of the controllables is the list you apply to.
I didn’t have Naviance and I’m glad. My daughter applied to 21 and I nailed 16 of the 17th. I didn’t see her getting into one school that she did. I got correct the four she didn’t. That’s by looking at stats, the program breakdown, what they seek (in CDS).
There are enough schools out there that are easy ins, even for hard majors - and kids should include one unless they are off the charts strong. In other words, a 4.5 weighted with 10 APs and a 34 doesn’t need to apply to an Alabama or Arizona level school (and that’s just two names of hundreds)
But a 3.7 weighted with little rigor and a 25 ACT absolutely needs to. Again, easy admits come in all shapes and sizes but if this kid is applying to a UMN or UTK and thinks it’s a safety, think again.
There are less college students so college is easier to get into. But there is so much grade inflation and those that think they’re the cream of the crop are all applying upward - and that has made the higher level schools harder to get into.
Weighted GPA can be deceptive since weighting methods vary. If that 4.5 came from an unweighted 3.1 with heavy weighting, that may not be competitive at a college showing 4.1 that is like 3.8 calculated with light weighting.
Absolutely, I have no idea on what kids or parents do for their applications. I actually have no idea what my own kid put on her application or essay and nor does her father. But I know she is the ultimate rule follower and would never embellish anything even if she knows it could help her. D23 is very independent and we decided our part would really just be the financial piece. I think what I was trying to convey in my original reply is her son still has time to show demonstrated interest. In the end there is only so much a student or parent can do.
And for some states, we have to remember not all flagships are 35K enrollment like UW-Madison. Flagships like UNC or UVA are under 20K undergrads and it’s easy for applicants with sparkling stats to not be offered admission. And of course, as you said, the odds are even worse for some majors.
I think it’s safe to say that some states’ flagships are mere matches for most high stats in-state applicants, not safeties. UArkansas/UIowa/URI? Sure, every high stats applicant can consider those as safeties. But in other states you might have to migrate down to the 2nd or 3rd or even 4th public university before identifying a true safety.
Back in the 1970 and 80s extremely well qualified students from my HS were deferred or waitlisted by strong LACs like Williams and Amherst because the AOs knew their schools were just the safeties for students who wanted to get into an Ivy. Schools that receive large numbers of applicants from a given HS - private or public - track both how many matriculate, then how they perform at the school.
My son applied to a big mix of safety, target, and reach/dream schools in the EA round–10 total. First 2 safeties admitted him and we’re waiting on full financial offers, though they’re not my son’s preference. The next 3 were top 20 universities that deferred him, of which we all thought he would get into one specifically bc of several factors, including his school being a feeder. In fact, Naviance showed him deeply in the green zone and that was without taking into account intangibles such as the relationship with our high school, my son’s legacy status, and his URM status at this low URM school. Personally, I believe he has a good chance of getting in during the RD round.
But that’s not how I feel about the other deferrals he got. He’ll probably be rejected based on previous year’s data. Applying ED was not an option for us. Right now we’re focused on scholarship applications to try to pay for colleges. Meanwhile he just sent his last application last week and will need to start working on letters of continued interest. The fun continues.
Fair - i’m talking about the most frequently used - .5 for Honors and +1 for AP.
But that’s fair - not everyone uses the same.
My main point was to say - there are truly hundreds if not more schools out there that are a safety for nearly all college bound kids.
Even a school like Arizona - they admit kids not ready for college and put them in a pre college math class and allow them to take less credits - and oh by the way don’t include them in IPEDs or other ranking systems. And they still admit 87%. And a sixth of admits had a UW HS GPA of 2.5-2.99. And that’s not counting those they let in but put in pre-college math. And they’re not the only school doing that.
And guess what - it’s a great school - engineering, business, poli sci and more.
Some people snub their noses to this level of school - but if they need an assured admittance they shouldn’t. It would take a lot of pressure off of them. After all, do you think 95% of employers care if you went to UC Irvine, Arizona, Maryland, Wisconsin, Florida, or Illinois to name others that folks might think they’d get into but end up deferred or rejected.
I assure you - they don’t.
Again, not saying one has to attend one of these schools - but putting in a safety net to assure their student will have a great chance at a great four year experience - would eliminate a lot of stress for people that are not skilled at determining the reality of their kid’s chances. After all, most assume their kid is “better” than others so that’s an inherent bias.
These types of colleges are out in there in all shapes, sizes, geographies and budgets.
If you have a budget # to hit and your first safeties can’t get you there or the student is adamantly against, your time would be better spent applying to auto merit schools that WILL get you there vs. applying to outside scholarships that will either be small or really hard to get (the big national ones).
That’s, in my opinion, not a good use of time.
Finding a wonderful, affordable school is a much better use of time- and there are many out there.
If you’re looking top 20, you may find these beneath you - but these schools are loaded with really smart kids. In fact, #137 in US News has more national merit finalists than any school in America.
Very few kids will find an outside scholarship that pays off like it sounds like you need it to.
I’m sure this happens but I am noticing that colleges care more about whether the applicants are first generation or low income. Color of skin is not necessarily the important factor so that alone doesn’t cut it. It’s about giving an opportunity to a disadvantaged student from any background. So just marking off the diversity boxes isn’t as effective as it may have once been, at highly selective colleges I would add.