I found the FAFSA to be a little more accurate but there are a lot of factors that affect EFC so make sure the info is accurate. I’m with @Penn95 on this, if the parents are good with 15K then go for Penn ED. Your EFC can and will change yearly as income goes up/down and children graduate from college making EFC go higher.
If it helps, our EFC has been in the $20 K range and my DD gets a Penn grant of $40K a year. We make up the rest with loans.
After much deliberation, I decided I am applying to Penn RD. I know that applying to either of HYPS early action will not have the same weight as ED, but I’d rather risk the admissions boost at Penn than my happiness if I commit myself to Penn (never visited, not sure if business is right for me, not sure about the campus and area, financials, etc). I just have to trust in the process. Side note, I haven’t started my Penn Essay yet so that’s a factor of why I’m waiting for RD lol.