<p>I think there is an instability in the college admissions process. This has been brewing for years, but seems to have really manifested itself this year. I don’t have any data, but my sense around our high school is that this year is very tough. </p>
<p>Every year, the number of applications that an admissions department must read goes up, while the admissions rate goes down. Because the admissions rates go down, the following year, prudent students feel like they must submit even more applications. As a result, these admissions officers workload increases. There was an recent broadcast on NPR about how the Amherst admissions office almost randomly chose who to admit and who to waitlist. </p>
<p>Additionally, because students are filing so many more applications, it is very difficult for colleges to forecast their yields, so those that want to be conservative, tend to use the waitlist more, and those that don’t risk overcrowding next year’s freshman class. This is especially important at those schools that are rural and don’t have a backup way to house a huge overflow. While I was in college Boston University sometimes underestimated their yields and apartment vacancy rates dropped to below 2% and some students were housed in the Sheraton. If that happened at a place like Carleton College in the middle of rural Minnesota, where would those students live. </p>
<p>Finally, there is a practice, such as I believe has been done at Washington University in St. Louis, though it seems to have stopped last year, which was to waitlist a huge percentage of students who applied RD. Though I have no proof, it almost seemed like they didn’t read a huge fraction of applications until those students agreed to be on the waitlist. By waitlisting so many applicants, they were able to greatly improve their yield which moved them up the rankings. Furthermore, those who didn’t accept a position on the waitlist, which was the majority, allowed there admissions rate to drop substantially which also moved them up in the rankings, in some sense not really hurting the applicants, because they didn’t require a supplement. Presumably those that didn’t accept a spot on the waitlist were happier not to get rejected, and are probably happy wherever they did get accepted. </p>
<p>Part of the reason this is all happening is because each successive year, the population of HS graduates will continue to decrease; it peaked in 2009. As a results colleges up and down the food chain are trying to jockey for position so that they don’t end up with unfilled seats, or have to increase their admissions rate. </p>
<p>On the plus side, there are only so many applicants. Most of them will end up happy somewhere. I suspect that there will a lot people who get off multiple waitlists. I suspect there will be people who come of one waitlist, agree to matriculate, and then get off another waitlist. There will a lot of summer melt. It’s going to be very interesting, though stressful for many applicants and stressful for some admissions departments. </p>
<p>In the future, I believe that ED applicants will see their chances improve because there will be fewer applicants, and the school’s ability to manage the increasing risk of RD yield will be limited. I don’t know if this is a good thing, but for students who choose well, apply ED and end up happy, it will relieve a lot of stress. For everyone else, I think the uncertainty will increase.</p>