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what about the non-mfg stuff? i'm quite concerned about job security and growth with ME because of outsourcing. i've also met quite a few REALLY smart ME students from China. and you know how much they're willing to work for. so i don't see the point of paying extra to hire US engineers while the stuff is already made over there. seems like IE is a more practical choice even though all the other engineers tend to look down on IEs.
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<p>Like I said above, there is no point in outsourcing the manufacturing of a particular good in order to save costs if you then lose all those savings in transporting those finished goods to the end customer. That's why there will always be local manufacturing for some products, as some finished goods are extremely expensive to transport. Fully assembled desktop PC's, for example, are quite expensive to transport. You can profitably manufacture desktop PC components overseas, but probably not the assembled desktops themselves. Think about it - much of a fully-assembled desktop is basically air (it is the empty space inside the case). To assemble them overseas and then ship them here would basically mean shipping a lot of wasted air. (Note, I am not talking about laptops, just desktops. Laptops, because of their small size and hence high $/size ratio, are profitably manufactured overseas.) </p>
<p>You also have products that are characterized by the need for high responsiveness and rapidly falling prices. Desktop PC's again fall into this category. So does trendy fashion. With these sorts of goods, you can't really wait for months for something to arrive by boat from China. For example, I may want a particular PC with a particular video card, a particular amount of RAM, a particular microprocessor, etc., and I want that PC right now, not months later. In theory, such a system could be assembled overseas, but it would then need to be air-freighted over to me at tremendous cost. It's far more economical to simply run a local assembly plant. That's why the major PC vendors - Dell, HP, etc. - have numerous local assembly plants (or contract for local assembly capacity) and are not looking to outsource any of them. If anything, those vendors are looking to expand their local assembly capacity. For example, Dell recently opened a new desktop-PC assembly plant in Winston-Salem. </p>
<p>Similarly, the high fashion garment trade has to be highly responsive, as those people (i.e. trendy girls) who care about fashion don't want to buy anything out of style. Furthermore, what happens to be the hot style in a particular season is difficult to predict. Hence, those trendy garment manufacturers generally need local manufacturing capacity so that they can quickly shift to producing more of what happens to turn out to be the hot style and, because they're local, can quickly stock local stores with more of those items. Again, if you manufacture in China, then you have to wait for months for your items to be delivered by boat, by which time the fashion trend may be over and you have to sell all those items at a markdown. Either that, or you have to air-freight those items at considerable cost which eliminates the entire reason why you were manufacturing overseas in the first place. </p>
<p>Then there are those hugely capital-intensive manufacturing centers for which the cost of labor is basically infinitesimal compared to the rest of the costs. Microchip plants immediately come to mind. So do oil refineries. For example, a new microchip fab plant costs something on the order of $3 billion to build, and many hundreds of millions of dollars to maintain (i.e. cost of utilities, replacing obsolete fab equipment, etc.). The labor costs represent litte more than rounding errors. What matters far more are characteristics like access to highly reliable utility supplies (i.e. reliable electricity and water supplies), reliable laws (especially against intellectual property theft), reliable supply transportation chains (i.e. fab plants need highly reliable deliveries of base chemicals) and low tax regimes. Intel, for example, just opened a brand new fab in Arizona and is scheduled to complete another in New Mexico next year, for all of those reasons above. Oil refineries desire the same sort of reliability, and they also desire to be close to customers so that they can reconfigure production according to local needs (i.e. a local refinery can reconfigure production to produce more heating oil in response to an unexpected local cold snap.)</p>
<p>Then of course there are those US companies that are greatly benefitting from globalization as it allows them to sell more overseas. China has been importing great quantities of high-end capital goods, which means that companies like Caterpillar have been going gangbusters lately, for the simple reason that China does not have any companies that can produce high-end, high-quality construction and agricultural technology that Caterpillar can. Now, I'm sure that one day some Chinese firm will learn how to produce that technology, but that will mean that there will be some other technology that the US can produce that China can't (or won't). Similarly, Boeing is enjoying great business in selling to foreign airlines (as the US domestic airlines are still financially in the toilet). Maybe China one day will learn how to produce a passenger jumbo-jet, but that won't happen anytime soon. (Keep in mind that there are only 2 passenger jumbo-jet manufacturers in the world, Boeing and Airbus, and nobody is seriously threatening to break into that duopoly). </p>
<p>Hence, I would hardly say that manufacturing is "dead" because of global competition. It's more that manufacturing is changing. If you want to work in manufacturing in the US, you should be moving to where the US is strong. I would agree that fields like low-end furniture manufacturing, low-end garment manufacturing (i.e. underwear, socks, regular jeans), toy manufacturing, electronic components, packaging, and items like that are going to suffer from outsourcing. So you probably don't want to go there. On the other hand, there are plenty of other manufacturing fields that are quite strong.</p>