Not sure if any thread or article would be any more than speculation/anecdotes, disguised as expert opinion.
After all, no matter how well, or how poorly, someone did after graduating from their “dream” college - there is no telling how equally well/poorly that same person would have done if they had spent 4 years at a different college in a different city with different social circles.
At best, someone could compare past statistics and likelihoods - but that’s a far cry from actually knowing how that would transfer to a specific personality dealing with the actual professors, classes, housing, friends…
In any case, there currently is thread along those lines: