Is this school a safety school?

I live in washington state, and I just wanted to make sure, Is University of Washington - Seattle a safety school? While it is in state, it is the best school in WA state. Also, I’ve heard of several last year senior with excellent test scores, GPA getting rejected by UW while most students with decent GPA, test scores got in. So I just wanted to double check. Is UW a safety school for me?
Here are some stats
3.94 GPA
2170 SAT one sitting, 720 math, 690 reading, 780 writing
psat national merit scholar
SAT subject tests - Math II: 780 Physics: 800
I want to major in astronomy or physics (or both)

You’ve kind of answered your own question. If there’s doubt in your mind, it’s NOT a safety. Looks like it has around a 50% admit rate. I think you need an admit rate of 60% or 70% to be a safety, as well as having stats at about the 75th percentile.

Oftentimes the state flagship is not a safety for anyone. Western Washington U would be more like it. However, if U Dub offers EA that would be one way to hedge your bets.

Does your school use Naviance? If so, are most kids from your school with similar stats getting in?

I don’t think safeties have to have an overall acceptance rate of 60-70% or more. My kids’ didn’t. It depends on one’s own profile and how their school does placing students.

If you look at the university’s common data set linked below, you’ll see your stats are right about the 75% range. However, even a safety school isn’t a guarantee unless it has an auto admit policy. That’s why you should apply to 2-3 safeties at least IMO.

Can you afford it? That’s the other test for a safety.

Is your GPA weighted or unweighted? If it is unweighted, UW should be a statistical safety/low match as an instate applicant (both SAT and GPA are around the 75th percentile). If it is weighted, it would be more like a match. UW’s overall acceptance rate was around 45% last year, with 62.7% for instate and 39% for OOS/internationals.

If it interests you, you might consider applying to Washington’s Honors Program:

http://depts.washington.edu/uwhonors/apply/freshman/faq/

Good luck!

Safety = You are 100% sure to be accepted, you can afford it, and you would be happy to attend.

Neither I nor the knowledgable college counseling staff at my kids’ high school considered safety = 100% assurance of an acceptance. It doesn’t have to be that way. I agree with the affordability and happiness factor but those 2 elements should be present in any of the schools on the list - safety, match, and reach - IMO, or at least a shot that they will be affordable knowing you have the stats or financial need to qualify for merit or financial aid, respectively.

Actually I really dislike reach/match/safety and prefer finding “fit” where possibility of acceptance, affordability, and desirability of attending trumps rankings.

What was the contingency plan if the student gets shut out?

Rarely happened at my kids’ school. I can think of only one time in 7 years that I heard of it happening and the student had some waitlists and the college office was on the phone to work to convert one of those to an acceptance.

If you have a well thought out and balanced list, including more than one safety/likely school, no school needs to meet that 100% guarantee - which by the way is only guaranteed by some schools. Apply to several safeties, apply to at least one EA or rolling admission school so you can revise your strategy if needed.

I will add that my kids’ counselors were very good at correctly pegging which schools fell into which category and actively sharing that info. That was helpful.

If you have any doubt in your mind it is NOT a safety

The contingency plan is to apply somewhere else. At least one safety school should be EA or rolling admissions so the student has a chance to apply elsewhere. My kids all had safety schools where admission was highly likely but not guaranteed. Luckily for my oldest his safety was his #1 choice. My middle son had the complication of auditions so there weren’t any true safeties. My youngest will be chasing merit money with his safeties so he needs to apply to a few safeties so that he can compare offers. At least 2 safeties have EA so he will know early if he didn’t get in to those schools. His safeties are not generally considered safeties but nobody from our school with his stats has ever been denied at these two so while he doesn’t have 100% chance of admission the percentage is high enough.

My D had her safety admission in hand about this time last year and it provided a great background for pursuing other options. (It was EA)

Add another safety.
It’s the flagship, so you can’t be sure, but apply EA and yuou’ll have your answer early.

No EA at UW.

Alumn and local parent here. Statistically I would love to say it is a safety and it probably is BUT you are correct. I know several solid/high stats kids were were shockingly waitlisted and a very high stats kid who did not receive direct admit to engineering (yet got into Notre Dame and waitlisted at Harvard among others). It seemed to hit the east side hard in particular (not sure where you are but the regional differences were interesting as I didn’t see the same thing at our local HS which is not on the east side, Naviance if you have it, will help you gauge where you stand,

Check to see if either major is impacted, I suspect both are but if not that will up the odds.

Either way, find another safety to add. Not only does UW not offer EA they notify very late so you’ll want something in your back pocket to be safe.

UW admissions notification is around 3/15.

Physics is an open major: “Students in good academic standing may declare the major at any time by visiting the department advising office to complete the necessary paperwork.”

Astronomy only requires a cumulative 2.0 average in PHYS 121, PHYS 122 and PHYS 123 (or full transfer equivalent) to declare the major.

OP is on the right track regarding the double major, as the Department of Astronomy states:

“Undergraduates interested in advanced work in astronomy are advised to take a double major in astronomy and physics. Undergraduates interested in immediate employment at an observatory or other scientific institution should include computing and electronics courses as part of their program. As a capstone sequence of hands-on research and dissemination of results, the following is highly recommended: ASTR 480, followed by either ASTR 481 or ASTR 499 or a Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) project, and ending with ASTR 482.”