<p>A couple observations: </p>
<p>2008 is the peak projected year for U.S. high school graduates for the next decade. But the LOW POINT projected over the next decade is approximately equal to 2006. In other words, the difference between 2008 and “normal” is pretty insignificant.</p>
<p>If what one cares about is U.S. college admissions, there are some obvious factors missing from the equation: How many of those high school graduates will want to go to college? How much demand for U.S. college admission will there be from NON-U.S. high school graduates? The 100+ page report devotes three sentences to the first question, the last of which essentially says “We have no idea.” As far as I can tell, it devotes 0 sentences to the second question. Another three-sentence topic, ending with “no idea”, is homeschooling.</p>
<p>What all of this means for elite education is that approximately nothing is going to decrease demand in our lifetimes. It has a lot of interest for secondary and tertiary public colleges in the northeast (which is losing population, natch) and the west (which is gaining it, and more of it is speaking Spanish). But we knew that already. (Pennsylvania is a huge net importer of college students to its public and private colleges.)</p>