Is UC "Transfer Admission Guarantee" really guaraneed?

For example, if a student wants to pursue Computer Science, say at UC Santa Cruz,

will going to a community college, and following this TAG plan, and getting a much higher than minimum required GPA, really guarantee them admission?

OR will they be up against a whole bunch of other transfer applicants with similar stats, and end up not getting accepted?

Please help! Trying to decide if it is better to go to a community college, apply for TAG, and transfer to UCSC,
OR just go to another four-year university where they are already a direct admit to Computer Science.

Thanks!

Right now, TAG is legit - as advertised, you do your part (take classes and maintain GPA) - you get a seat. Some students struggle to meet the requirements in a timely fashion but, if you submitted an application last November and met the published criteria - you got in.

Could something like a budget crisis cause the UC system to change or eliminate TAG while you are working toward your transfer? Yes.

UCSD used to participate but, doesn’t now. Some majors at some schools also stopped participating (Business @ UCI) UCSD telegraphed their TAG exit with a couple year’s notice. I don’t know how major specific changes are handled.

So, while it is a great program and works for thousands of students each year, guarantee might be a little strong.

If you were admitted to another reputable program and have the budget, you might want to consider your options.