My kid and our distant relative were both WL at Duke and both got off the WL that year.
I think it is different year to year. If they are over enrolled on May 1 then they are not going to their WL, but if they got some bad news, like USC this year, then maybe their yield is going to be lower.
As other have said, it really depends. Your student may be at the top of the wait list pile at a school that under accepted. I know one kid that got into Yale off the wait list a number of year ago. But that is very unusual. If she would go to the school if accepted, she should let them know and see what happens.
Selective colleges and universities give hard "no"s all the time. They say no more than they say yes. A waitlist is only a soft no if the student’s parent is someone who the school doesn’t want to offend. If the student’s parents are basic no-name peons, then the waitlist probably means waitlist.
My DS was WL at Stanford last year so I only have one experience. But soon after the Decision Day, we heard from Stanford and my DS was admitted. We thought we’d be waiting until summer so it was a surprise. What we thought maybe Stanford does consider regional applications (how many students they accept from each region) and our region was maxed out during RD. But after the Decision Date and they know how many slots opened, they admit from the WL regardless of the region that’s why my DS heard from them quickly. But of course this is unconfirmed guess.
As stated above, it the answer varies. I do remember hoping that DS would get a Yes or a No from his favorite school… not the dreaded WL stress. Best of luck to you as you sort through this. Don’t feel bad if you opt to ignore the WL school due to the uncertainties.
Petrichor11 No, not his first choice and I think out of the running at this point. Thanks on the congrats. Always nice to have choices.