Ivy League Admissions -- Crapshoot or Rational?

Would you say that Ivy League Admissions (along with other top schools) are a crapshoot, or those that deserve to get in do get in?

Shoo-in applicants :

The prodigy students: there’s only a handful per year, eg: the dude who invented a cancer test that was recognized by like every media source

World class athletes: athletics=money

Applicants with super-hooks: son of the president, teen superstar,etc.

Top Applicants with a crazy story: Has the GPA/SAT & is for example, homeless

Those with a very good shot:

URMs with high test scores/GPA

National competition winners (the major ones)

Deep legacy students/those with parents that have donated a ton of $$

Everyone else:

Try your hardest and earn your lottery ticket

Who knows | who cares | we could chat forever about it but it would make no difference in your life or mine.

I do know that in many years of working with hundreds of students a year, I can say that the most “deserving” students reliably end up at great schools.

Not a craphsoot. But I would say most kids take that approach, to their own detriment.

IMHO, if you 1) have grades/SATs that are reasonable for the Ivy/top 20 school; 2) you honesty believe that this school is the best fit for you, for academic and other reasons and 3) if you can articulate #2 through your essays and high school scholastic/EC experience, then you should be comfortable in applying for that school. You still may get rejected, but you can feel good that you were a credible applicant!

“Best match for you” and a key element: that you’re a good match for them. Just breezing through, satisfied with your stats and that this college will make your future dreams a lock, isn’t enough.

IMO admission to any single top tier school can be a crapshoot – but from what I have seen the top students get into one or more excellent school (be it an Ivy or not).

It is not a crapshoot at all. The only element of “luck” is that hopefully an Ad com likes what you have to offer as package. @marvin100 is right, because the best students end up at the best schools, for them. That doesn’t mean that the best students only go to HYP. It means that the best students who apply to the right range of schools tend to have great choices. It doesn’t mean they get into every school they apply to.

It is fairly common to see posts every April, in whch a student laments that they didn’t get into any of the Top 20 schools they applied to, and maybe only got into their safety school. They think it’s a lottery, so they buy a bunch of tickets. It isn’t a lottery. Don’t treat it as such, and you will be fine.

Yes. It’s both rational and a crapshoot.

There are rational things about the evaluation of your application. Your grades, scores, EC’s, essays, etc. all count for something.

It’s also a crapshoot. A quarter million rejected applications to elite schools each year, only a few thousand enrolling. Many objectively good applications have to be rejected in that numbers game.

How is it NOT a crapshoot? Former admissions dean for Reed College, Paul Marthers wrote:

“Hail Mary” toss applications to the Harvard or Stanford or Yale admissions offices quickly get flushed.

AroundHere, they aren’t rejected simply on the basis of culling the numbers. To get down to 10%, it’s not nine times No and just taking the tenth. “Objectively good” is just the start.

The sheer number of applications leads to splitting hairs. Statistically insignificant differences in scores or GPAs, or some small turn of phrase in the essay, or some other small obscure thing that shouldn’t make a difference – will turn out to actually make a difference in whether someone is admitted or not. Maybe the kid did the same sort of EC’s as the first application reader did back in the day, and that favorably affects the first summary written on the folder. That small bit of luck could carry them through a subsequent round that someone just as qualified academically qualified.

For outsiders, say a teacher or counselor, who saw 100 excellent applications go in and 5 or 6 acceptances come out, it certainly looks like a lottery, even if it seems well-reasoned and holistic to those actually making the decisions.

Exactly.

The process is rational, but not formulaic. The Adcom works to create a well rounded class and there are reasons for the action taken on each application.

There’s a little bit of a crapshoot element. Being a fantastic piccolo player may get you into one school, because the orchestra needs a piccolo player and that’s the thing that pushes your application over the edge, while it’s no help at another equally good school because they’re full up on piccolo players. That’s luck. Does the special thing you bring to the table happen to be the special thing a particular school needs this particular year?

For anyone not sitting in the room (students, parents, gc’s, alumni interviewers who year after year see candidates they think are terrific get rejected) it LOOKS a lot like a crapshoot because they have so little information. But they’re not picking acceptances out of a hat.

It’s rational if you have at least 6 of of these attributes.

  1. High GPA/high rank
  2. Near perfect SAT/ACT
  3. Great Essays
  4. Great recommendations
  5. Award winning EC's
  6. Rigorous courses with near perfect IB/AP/SAT ll scores
  7. Top 1% wealth or bottom 5% poverty 7.Great social skills or greater connections
  8. Native, AA or Hispanic ancestry or recent immigration from a country with war or famine
  9. Recruited athlete, Broadway Actor, Grammy wining singer, published writer with enough sales, world changing research or invention
  10. Impressive volunteer record at notable places

If not then it’s a crap shot.

P.s. Just half kidding!

Not a crapshoot. The kid whose “life will be over” if he does not get into an “Ivy” is not getting in. He (or she) has been worrying about and putting their time and energy into their own glory instead of pursuing their interests and curiosity that make them interesting people. The kid who whines and grade grubs over a 91% on their test is not getting in. Their teachers will consent to writing them LORs but they will be lukewarm. The kid whose parents have pushed them into all the “right” ECs such as violin, tennis, math club is not getting in. The elite schools have scads of tennis playing applicants who play violin and are good at math. They are looking for “class leader” LORs as well as “best in career” ones. They need good trombone players. They aren’t swayed by kids who have done exotic charity work in far away lands. Ideally they are sifting through apps to find students who will give to the school, not want things from the school.

Remember, “Ivy” is an athletic league. It’s not sine qua non for “best school.” The best school is the one that’s the best fit where you can do your best work. Admission to any school is to some degree a crap shoot, but there are ways to maximize your chances of getting in to any of them. A lot of it is preparation, research, and yeh, some luck is involved too. Don’t sell yourself short, by over-focusing on ivy admission. I did attend an ivy, but it wasn’t the status that got me where I wanted to go. Find a college you love and invest your time wisely at it. Look for your opportunity, it may or may not be at an ivy!

@preppedparent Why is there an assumption that anyone that asks about an Ivy is clueless or going after prestige? The OP might be as well informed as you, and thats why wants to attend an Ivy like you did. If you didnt attend it for the “status” as you say, then why would you mention it here?

I read so many such contradictory posts on CC regularly where people dissuade teens from applying to Ivies/ not to be a prestige seeker etc WHILE declaring they actually graduated from an Ivy!!

There is an auto assumption on CC that “curious about Ivy” posters are always looking for prestige and respondents who studied there did it for every reason other than prestige.

Very confusing…seriously…

Just because you get in does not mean you will be able to comfortably afford or even like the experience. People split hairs, there are many great colleges, and value is a major concern for most families.

@boidei I agree that inquiries to certain schools shouldn’t automatically be assumed to be prestige-hounds. But in the history of this site, clear indicators usually accompany those that have not done much research beyond targeting a few “names”. If you read closely enough, often these posts are the initial inquiries. Fair enough — people need to start somewhere. The devil is in the details. When re-directed with simply questions like: do you prefer rural or urban, what major, etc. – and no answer is forthcoming, it becomes revealing.

And the number of times a 9th or 8th grader comes here declaring X is their dream school (and X has a less than 10% admit rate), it’s also pretty obvious that the allure of the school name has initiated the dream rather than any mature understanding of what to pursue in assembling a target list of colleges. That’s my two cents at least

@T26E4 Thank you!! Point taken… I read your suggestions/advise frequently and consider your POV to be objective and well thought out. But sometimes I notice respondents assume anyone that asks a Ivy Q is a prestige hound.

“You are asking a Q because you are greedy only about prestige, I graduated from there because of everything BUT prestige” (Why even mention it if Ivies are really not such a big deal?)

If the parents can afford it and the kids can pull it off, why not?
If they are indeed prestige seekers then they probably already know its a Powerball.
Dissuading such kids from applying makes some respondents sound like Ivy adcoms.
Just because a kid sounds incoherent or inarticulate on CC doesnt mean they cant pull together a fantastic app package.