Jan 15 application and March 30 application

I’m an international student who’s planning to transfer to Columbia GS in fall 2016. The deadline for early action is March 1 and the admission result will be on May 1. However, if I submit my application before Jan 15 I will get the result on March 1. Which option has the higher chance of acceptance, Jan 15 or March 1? Does anyone know? Thank you :slight_smile: