Just found out my UC and Cal state gpa is way lower than I expected.. chance me?

So, I plugged in my grades to some online UC and Cal State gpa calculators and got way lower than I expected (but makes sense because I guess my honors classes don’t get me extra points and the IB classes I took don’t either)
With that being said, chance me?
School GPA: 3.9W, 3.5UW
Cal State GPA: 3.4
UC GPA: 3.55
ACT: 33 (35 english, 32 math, 32 reading, 31 science)
Good, not great EC’s
Hard courseload, took 4 honors freshman year, 3 honors sophomore year, 2 IB classes junior year, taking 3 AP and 1 IB senior year

I’m applying to UCSB, UCLA, UC Berkeley for UC
I’m applying to San Diego State, Sonoma State, and Cal Poly SLO for Cal State

IB classes do get the extra honors points. Use this calculator: https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/
Post UW, UC capped weighted and Fully weighted.

Also CSU/UC GPA for capped weighted should be the same.

UC and CSU are different because CSU uses freshman year through junior year, while UC only uses sophomore and junior year. My IB classes are Math SL IB, which doesn’t get a point (IDK why…) and IB Business Management HL 1, which is new so it might get a point, but I couldn’t find it on the A-G list (but my school assured me it was UC approved). I’m going to assume I don’t get an extra point, but if I do it’s a minimal difference.
Stats being the same, what would you say my chances are?

If you look at the CSU Mentor website, it states to calculate your CSU GPA you using a-g courses 10-11th just like the UC’s. The only CSU that uses 9th grade a-g courses in their GPA calculation is Cal Poly SLO, the rest use 10-11th grades. See below from the CSU Mentor website:

Using the chart below, enter the count of each grade you have earned in a-g courses completed after 9th grade. For example, if you have earned 4 As so far in a-g courses taken after 9th grade then enter 4 in the box next to the “A.” Continue to enter counts of all your grades earned in a-g coursework. Ignore pluses and minuses in the grade (i.e., B+ should be considered a B).

If you have taken any approved honors, AP, college, or IB classes in the 10th, 11th, or 12th grades, then enter the count of honors course grades you have earned that are C or better. The maximum number of honors courses you can use is eight semesters. No more than two approved honors level courses taken in the 10th grade may be given extra points. Do not enter any count for the honors courses with grades of D or below. Enter 1 for each semester of approved honors work up to a maximum count of 8

UCB and UCLA are totally out of reach, UCSB is a big reach.
However, that GPA/Score combination guarantees you admission to the Honors College at UAlabama, along with a full tuition scholarship. You could also do well through WUE.

Sonoma State: Safety
SDSU: Match
SLO: High Match-Reach depending upon major

UCB/UCLA: High Reach
UCSB: Reach

What is your intended major?

UC’s are very GPA focused and if your UC GPA is in the 3.40-3.79 range, these are the Freshman admit rates for the following UC’s based on 2015 data:

UCB: 1%
UCLA: 3%
UCSB: 13%

You need a couple more Match schools: CSULB/CSUF or Cal Poly Pomona perhaps or as @MYOS1634 stated Univ of Alabama for merit or some of the WUE schools.

http://wue.wiche.edu/search_results.jsp?searchType=all

UCR and UCM are both possible - the other UCs are probably out of reach.

SDSU, Sonoma, Long Beach and Fullerton are all in range.
Good luck

I’m a business management/economics major depending on what each college has.
I’m applying to other schools too, I just wanted to know my chances for UC/CSU
Thanks for the input everyone, it was pretty dissappointing but I feel like I should have known considering how GPA centered the UC/CSU process

You’re lucky though: you live in California, which gives everyone a second chance via excellent community colleges. So, if you really want to try for a top UC, you can use the CC->UC route.

Second all the above great advice- but SL IB math should definitely be weighted.

UCR - safety
UCM - safety
UCSB - reach
UCLA - high reach
UCB - high reach
SDSU - match
Fullerton - match

This is mainly because of your UC GPA. Your ACT is great.

Good luck.

I wish Math SL IB was weighted…if I had known it wasn’t I would have switched to pre Calc honors, but I didn’t find out until it was too late.
Also, I plugged in my stats into the rogerhub chances calculator, and it says that I have a very strong chance of getting accepted to UCSB. I know that UCSB has been getting a lot more selective over the last couple of years, but does my ACT give me a boost at all? I feel like it could at least be a borderline target…

The Roger Hub UC GPA calculator is accurate, the chances calculator is not. It does not take into account Essays and EC’s. UCSB states on their website that academics (GPA/Test Scores/HS course rigor) account for 50% of the application review and the EC’s/Essays/Special circumstances/Talents… account for another 50%. UCSB tends to like high test scores but it does not make up a lower than average GPA. Your GPA is below the 25th percentile and had about a 13% acceptance rate in 2015. Spend time on your essays and maybe the will have a greater impact.

Consider UCSB as a Reach and if you get in then a pleasant surprise and a job well done. Good Luck.

UCSB is a big reach. Apply but make sure you add it to your list after you have two safeties and three matches(where you’re respectively in the top 25% and near top 25%.)

I feel like everyone says this on this website, but I think that I have pretty strong EC’s and my essays have been great so far (at least the people who have reviewed them have told me that) and I am confident in that aspect. I don’t have any hooks (straight, white, male, not first gen college, etc.) but I think that my EC’s are strong.

http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/what-my-chances/1903428-faq-uc-historical-frosh-admit-rates-by-hs-gpa.html

Based on your UC GPA and 2015 admission rates for the range that includes it, you should consider all UCs to be reaches except for UCSC (probably high match), UCR (probably match), and UCM (probably low match), if you are not aiming for a competitive major.

If you are aiming for a competitive major (e.g. computer science or an engineering major at most UC campuses), expect admission to be more difficult.