<p>In other threads there have been discussions of how many selective schools have such low admission rates that everyone has to consider them reaches. Also on some of these threads there has been discussion of how easy it is for parents to fall into the trap of assuming that because their child has such high stats, their child will be able to beat these odds.</p>
<p>I know for me, the true nature of selectivity was brought home when I saw one school's brochure that actually gave a breakdown by gpa and sat of the number of applicants and number accepted and rejected -- I found it very enlightening to see that even among those in the top categories, admission at the school in question was far from a sure bet. </p>
<p>I have done some browsing at some of the top schools and have found the following stats. I am sharing these because I think they really underscore the fact that NO ONE can consider themselves a shoe in at some of these schools. Even students in some of the top categories at these schools are getting no better than a 50-50 shot at admission.</p>
<p>I think these types of stats can be a much greater "reality check" than just hearing that a school has an overall admit rate of 10%, 25%, etc. I wish all schools made this type of info readily available.</p>
<p>Yes, totally agree. I recall that at Stanford for 2004 (I believe), of those with 1600 SAT "perfect" scores, 50% were admitted, 50% denied. There was a thread last year which posted many links similar to yours, but yours are probably now more up-to-date.</p>
<p>Lucky for your kid that you "get it". Many people never get this far.......they whine about getting deferred or rejected with their amazing stats....ECs....prestige HS and on and on.</p>
<p>s'vrone, I've looked for those statistics. They don't exist except in the frightening and truthful anecdotal evidence here on this board. We are choosing to prepare as if the acceptance at any given school is as uncertain as the lowest acceptance rate for any single "area" because D is from an unknown school. There are so many other factors that make up the rest of the story that it's about all we can do. </p>
<p>Penn has a great breakdown , too. I'll try to find it again.</p>
<p>There are only about 75 schools that are very selective (Take fewer than 50% of their applicants). For some reason everyone wants to go to the same schools. At the other extreme, there are some schools that will take almost anybody with a pulse. People who want to go to those aren't on college boards.</p>
<p>As the current teen population bulge works its way through the college process and because today's students apply to more colleges than students formerly did, we can expect to see the acceptance rates at colleges to go down. Also, students (and parents) tend to forget that acceptance rates for individual programs at a college may be vastly different from the overall acceptance rate at the school. Very few colleges break down acceptances based on majors.</p>
<p>I always say that we do a dis-service to our kids (and ourselves) by focusing in on the "acceptance" rate for each school instead of the "rejection" rate. Think in terms of "91% of applicants to Harvard get rejected" and you have a totally different view of things than if you're thinking "9% acceptance rate." In the first case, you really looking at your chances, in the second you're likely to think "hmmm, I (or my kid) am wonderful. Of course I'll be in that 9%!"</p>
<p>And, it's not just the super-selective schools where you need to think this way, in my opinion. Apply it to schools where there's a 30% chance of rejection, a 40% chance of rejection, a 50% chance of rejection. It keeps things in perspective, and reemphasizes why you need to do a good job on EACH and every application.</p>
<p>Like Curmudgeon, my daughter prepared her list of colleges knowing that acceptance at any given school is uncertain, and that the raw numbers don't always tell the full story about who gets in. I guess some would say that Cur and I have urged our kids to be overly cautious, but hopefully, in the end, they'll have many solid choices to choose from.</p>
<p>The marvel of it all is the people buy lottery tickets........they know the odds and they still buy. Sometimes I think "knowing" the odds encourages people to take opinion that they can do superhuman things.</p>
<p>it would be faith... ^ that leads to those things... in any case apply to your safety first, then you feel ok if you get rejected at every single school you apply to... (i'm sure i won't if that's what happens)</p>
<p>This thread highlights the fundamental flaw of the "Here are my stats, what are my chances?" threads on College Confidential.</p>
<p>The stats, in many cases, just serve as a culling mechanism. Once all the applicants with the stats are left in the pile, the decisions start being made. In part, those decisions are based on the strength of the overall package. In part, those decisions are made based on the institutional needs of the school and the specific freshman class.</p>
<p>Students would be better served to focus less on their stats and more on presenting the most effective package based on their interests and experiences. IMO, students often leave a lot on the table with an unfocused application.</p>
<p>Students would also be well served to concentrate on identifying schools where their particular package will be viewed favorably. For example, if your strength is community service, not varsity sports, you will probably have a better shot at a school that valued community service over athletics than at an otherwise identical school that fills a quarter of its class with recruited athletes. It's just common sense.</p>
<p>That would be like women shopping for their "real" shoe size or men shopping for a power tool that wasn't more than they needed!!! Good post tho. I just couldn't help myself.</p>
<p>"This thread highlights the fundamental flaw of the "Here are my stats, what are my chances?" threads on College Confidential."</p>
<p>Yep - I always find those posts somewhat pointless - no one can tell you your chances except for the admissions officers - and then you only get a really "honest" answer when the official enveope arrives.</p>
<p>And one of the traps people readily fall into - they look at the stats of the ADMITTED students (eg, sat 25-75 percentiles) to see how their stats compare. What they don't stop to think about is how many with those stats are still rejected!! Being at the 75 percentile guarentees you nothing, if over 50% of the applicants with those stats were rejected!</p>
<p>"As the current teen population bulge works its way through the college process and because today's students apply to more colleges than students formerly did, we can expect to see the acceptance rates at colleges to go down."</p>
<p>And also, more and more applicants have higher credentials - for example, many more kids applying have AP courses than used to be the case. Things that used to make a kid stand out from the pack are becoming more and more the norm as kids devote more energy to boosting their credentials.</p>
<p>Unbelieveablem - good point about percent of students rejected at certain SAT/GPA percentiles. Unfortunately, even students who have taken courses in statistics don't seem to understand much about real world statistics.</p>
<p>The point of the what are my chances threads is coming to terms. School counselors and parents aside.....it is the opportunity to see other anonymous students, ridden w/ angst, posting less than perfect stats, making it all real. Scarry truths......waiting for answers.</p>
<p>Last year, when we were on a college tour, one of the admission officers at a highly selective school put it best. She said that assuming an applicant has the basic credentials to be given serous consideration because they are qualifeid for admission, the applicant should just consider the admissions process to be more or less a lottery, with a significant degree of luck involved. (Remember: these schools typically have two to three times more qualified students then they can admit.) A student who will not be admitted this year might with the same credentials have been admitted the past year or would be admitted the next year depending on the mix of what the college needs in the student body. Sometimes, the decision is truly capricious. If the admissions officer who is making the case on an applicants behalf has already gotten a bunch of students admitted that day, the committee may decide to say no just because they are tired of saying yes to this admissions officer. On the other hand, if he or she has been shut out that day, they may give him or her one just for heck of it. If you happen to be an oboe player and the committee just admitted another oboe player, that could bode poorly for you. In other words, despite all you hear about how seriously each application is objectively reviewed, human dynamics play a role, and completely unknown to you they may help or hurt your chances. As we know from CC, there are always going to be the statistical anomalies where it will be mind boggling that all schools passed on a student or several schools accepted a student who didnt seem to merit that level of interest. You need to be both good to get considered and lucky to be selected.</p>
<p>Everything you say is true to some extent. But, I really wish adcoms would stop referring to it as a "lottery", because it is really not. All they are doing to trying to bump up their application numbers by giving everyone hope. Heck, I should run out and buy a lotto ticket -- it's only a buck and who knows? If they would spend as much time detailing what they are really looking for, it would not be perceived as a lottery.</p>
<p>They all have a checklist. Sure, there are exceptions, but the more checkmarks you can give them the better: class rank, test scores, four years of math, four years of languages, all three sciences, and so on and so forth. </p>
<p>IMO, if you can really start to understand a particular college or university, it is possible to get a pretty good feel for what will light their fire. Each college faces different challenges and will have a different distribution of acceptances. For example, if you look at two colleges with identical median SATs and one school has 29% recruited athletes in the freshman class and the other has 15%, that is going to make a huge difference if you are a non-athlete. For one thing, it means that the heavier athletic school is likely to put particular emphasis on high test scores in their non-athlete applications, whereas the other school can achieve the same median stats with a more even distribution or use more of their lower stat slots to achieve other institutional priorities.</p>
<p>Same thing for differences in diversity. Or differences in the percentage of full-pay students. Or differences in the number of public school versus private school students. One school might put considerable weight on the "Why Podunk U?" essay; the other might not even ask it. </p>
<p>How are the median SAT scores achieved? Does it take awarding merit aid to the top 25%? Or by having 70% wealthy full-pay students?</p>
<p>Where do students come from geographically. How many are legacy admits and what are their stats? How many are Early Decision? What is their yield? What is their gender balance? Has the Engineering department or the dance department been getting enough students in recent years? How about the new Middle Eastern Studies major?</p>
<p>All of those things are important clues that impact an individual applicant's chances in significant ways. It's only a lottery because it is so darn hard to figure all that stuff out.</p>
<p>We could all just buy tickets......watch the balls come down the chute on
TV and then wait for the class of 2010 to be announced. Each College gets draws.....kinda like watching the draft on ESPN. I mean the colleges could just choose another method.</p>