The coaches at the Ivies know who they can get in and what is needed. Several years ago there were sophomores ‘committing’ to the Ivies, and sometimes even a few freshman, in lax. They officially deemed it ‘committing to the process’ because admissions hadn’t (couldn’t) admit them or even do a financial aid read. But everyone announced that they were committed, posted it on laxpower, and bought the t-shirts. And most of those kids DID go to those schools. The coaches could tell them “I can get a 3.9/34 ACT admitted” and would also tell a 3.7/28 that they couldn’t get in unless they were All American skill levels. Many of these kids have siblings, parents, coaches who attended these Ivies. They know what they need.
Nothing was official, the offers were verbal, and the commitment wasn’t enforceable. I’d say your neighbors are in this group - coach has offered support through the process, the students have said they want to go and are calling them offers or commitments.
Now the timeline has changed, can’t discuss recruiting until Sept 1 of junior year, but there are still juniors committing and announcing, long before the admissions offices get involved.