Regression, schmeegression. Not assumptions, estimates, or filling in blanks via a math formula. And not trying to clone the dictator from a nose cell: finding “certainties” via stats of matriculants.
Even focusing so intently on ratings misses the impact of qualitative and how the whole factors in decisions. You can’t evaluate w/o a view of the app itself. Who’s seen Malia’s or Jared’s? Big news excites people but doesn’t auto translate to fact.
Most kids, even top performers, struggle with the non resume aspects of the app. When H says 80% are “qualified,” it does not mean could, would, or will be finalists. The rest of their apps can sink. It’s much closer, in my estimation, to the 6x factor H noted several years ago. Roughly 12k or up given the higher levels of consideration, fewer than that to final table. One MIT rep said, on CC, that (pre New SAT) any scores with a 7 in front show capable of doing the work. But these schools ask for more than that.
No, that doesn’t prove the magic dust is wealth, legacy, or non athletic hooks. No, not all alum parents are wealthy, pay for privileges, or necessarily donate big sums, at all. Or volunteer. What they can do is transmit a deeper understanding of the college, their experiences, the environment. Any kid can learn that, but many never do.
People make similar assumptions about those who benefit from FA or diversity interests. That they can’t have merited their admits. After all, some studies showed… But who’s seen their apps? In fact, many of these kids are successful strivers. Many with more personal and community impact than our sweet comfy kids with their camps, test prep, counselors. They can outshine. And not just succeed, but impact many others, in their lives.