<p>You're in Arizona? You had a "geographical diversity" edge when you mailed your app off to Massachusetts -- not so much in California. ;)</p>
<p>Not to mention that Scripps is about half the size of both Mt. Holyoke and Smith and therefore has fewer seats to offer. And, Scripps also tends to take better qualified applicants -- 69% of Scripps admits rank in the top 10% of their high school class, compare to 61% at Smith and 51% at Mt. Holyoke.</p>
<p>A student in the "College Admissions" forum says she/he(?) was waitlisted at Haverford with an incomplete application! This student never completed the app because he/she decided to not apply. Evidence of crapshoot...</p>
<p>premature,</p>
<p>Actually I would not count that as evidence of crap shoot. Actually the opposite. It suggests that, on the basis of what they saw, the candidate was so strong that they were not all that worried about a holistic evaluation and wanted to keep the student in the pool. Also, in the context of this tread, we are looking for reversals, acceptances to higher ranking schools accompanied by rejections to lower ranking schools. The crap shoot people on this thread are arguing, in part, that adcoms are looking for subtle indications of interest and fit that are hard to quantify but make a big difference.</p>
<p>I do understand what evidence people are looking for in this thread. But a half completed app is a clear indication of disinterest. Perhaps yield is not that important after all.</p>
<p>Premature,</p>
<p>I would agree with all of those observations. I just don't think it supports the case for randomness in the process.</p>
<p>My son read Michele Hernandez' book "A is for Admission" shortly before he started applying to colleges in fall 2005. Being math minded, he was intrigued by the notion of an academic index. He calculated his chances for the 8 schools he applied to, and for him, the academic index proved correct. A few weeks after he read the book, we realized that Ms. Hernandez lived just a few miles from us. We were a bit dismayed by her "ka-ching" remark in an article in our local newspaper. </p>
<p>"It's 7 p.m. Oregon time -- 3 a.m. central Africa time -- and the phone rings in Michele Hernandez's home office. The caller, a wealthy member of an African parliament, is ecstatic to have Hernandez on the line. She tells Hernandez she has five children, all junior high age or younger. And she wants Hernandez to help them secure admission to the best colleges in the United States. But first, she wants Hernandez's expertise on the creme de la creme of private high schools. "Deerfield?" Hernandez says. "I have a special place in my heart for it. . . . Andover? To me, it's a little bit of a factory school; there are just so many kids there." A minute later, Hernandez is off the phone. The fee the woman will pay Hernandez will exceed $165,000, about $33,000 per child for consulting over the four years of high school. Hernandez can't help but celebrate. "Ka-ching!" she exclaims, mimicking the sound of a cash register. That's Hernandez: savvy, confident, driven. A former admissions officer at Dartmouth College, she has a commanding knowledge of the admissions process. She also is one of the priciest college consultants -- charging $22,000 to $36,000 to help teens prepare for college admission starting as early as the eighth grade."</p>
<p>My son was glad he didn't need to pay her a dime! I still think that admissions decisions to top schools are very unpredictable. More than anything else, my son felt like his recommendations and essays made the difference (being from a smaller state probably didn't hurt, either). But if you ask my son if he believes in the academic index, I don't think he would say no.</p>
<p>Is it possible to get AI data on enrolled or admitted students for various schools?</p>
<p>Premature,</p>
<p>I think your right, yield while still important to some schools is less important than it used to be.</p>
<p>So curious14, now that all the acceptence are in I'll play your game. Though I'm a little too lazy to figure out just how the colleges are ranked. Mathson applied to Harvard, MIT, Stanford, Caltech, Harvey Mudd, Carnegie Mellon, RPI and WPI. I'd guess the first four are five are about on par, the next one or two are one level down, and RPI is lower still with WPI's a smidgin below RPI. Of the first five only Harvard accepted Mathson. Some might think that's the hardest one to get into, but I think that's where being a legacy really did help. I also think that Computer nerds may be a dime a dozen at the tech schools. He got into the computer science school at Carnegie Mellon and got money at RPI and WPI. </p>
<p>I wasn't particularly surprised by the results. From our school's scattergrams it already looked like Harvard was a better than 50/50 chance without counting the legacy bump. (We don't do nearly as well at Yale or Princeton.) I thought Stanford would be a miracle - only two kids accepted in four years, they were URMs, legacies and/or athletes. MIT I figured at 1/4 after he got deferred. Caltech I thought he had about a 1/3 chance which is still odds against. I thought he'd get into Harvey Mudd and he was waitlisted. I was pretty sure CM was a good bet, nephew had gotten in the year before and he was well above average for acceptees from his school. RPI and WPI I considered sure bets and they were. RPI especially has been wooing him. So crapshoot, not really accept to the extent that the top schools in the country are a crapshoot for everyone. You really don't know why one kid gets in and another doesn't. The kid three places ahead of him in rank and more well rounded, concertmaster of the orchestra and also active in Sci. Olympiad ended up waitlisted at Harvard, but he got into Princeton.</p>
<p>curious14:S accepted at all Stanford,MIT,Caltech,WashU,Rice,Berkeley,Michigan,Case,Ill(listed by meaningless USNews ranking) and Olin. Predicted by counselors and teachers. Middle class. Not URM. Nonlegacy. Public school. School has sent kids to everyone of the top schools in the past, generally 5-10 kids per year(I think). S had a plan in about the 6th grade(based on what he knew then and projections) and I guess it worked, so to that extent not a crap shoot.
(Did not use any consultants and just joined CC, so no help or hinderence there).</p>
<p>Based on D's results, I really don't think it's a crapshoot either. I will confess to flushing $19.95 on ThickEnvelope, and they exactly predicted her results. She applied to MIT, Stanford, Carleton, Notre Dame, UW and Santa Clara. TE gave her 40% odds at MIT, 30% at Stanford, 70% at Carleton, and 60% at ND. I can't remember if I even plugged in UW and SC since by the time we knew she was in at both. She got rejected from MIT and Stanford; accepted at ND and Carleton. </p>
<p>She's not a singleminded genius, she's a classic BRWK. I honestly believe the schools that accepted her are better FOR HER than MIT or Stanford would have been. </p>
<p>I have talked to other parents of college freshman and sophomores about this and people are pretty unanimous that the best thing you can do for your child is understand that the adcoms at selective schools, in general, do an excellent job of discerning what is best for each applicant. They are pretty good at sensing fit, even if the kids are not. It is really helpful to frame a rejection in terms of "they did you a favor--that's a lot of money to spend to be uncomfortable or unhappy."</p>
<p>The only surprise we had was Vandy- S got waitlisted. According to scattergrams at our hs, he should have been a strong candidate. ThickEnv gave him a 86% chance there. Another surprise- he got into UVa (60%) and UNC (80%- he's a legacy), OOS both. Those were the only surprises.</p>
<p>Double Play,</p>
<p>I'll take a stab in the dark and guess that your sons class rank/grades were very high relative to his test scores. The state schools seem to weight these higher than the private schools do.</p>
<p>Mombot</p>
<p>I really am not trying to be cynical but I think the adcoms are looking out for the interests of their schools. This sometimes results in good outcomes for the applicants, sometimes not, but I think you're being naive to believe that the point of the process is to protect the kids.</p>
<p>I still think it's a crapshoot. 4 out of 16 schools were surprises as follows.
Very pleasant surprise: In at Berkeley (College of Natural Resource)</p>
<p>Pleasant surprises: In at UCSD and Occidental</p>
<p>Unpleasant surprise: In at USC for Spring 08</p>
<p>As expected:
Rejected: UCLA (Marine Bio major-prob very popular) and Tufts</p>
<pre><code> Accepted: U Miami, USD, CAl Poly SLO, UCs: Davis, Irvine, SB,
and 3 CSU's
</code></pre>
<p>In hindsight we were heavy on safeties, but since I still think admissions can be a crapshoot and every year hear horror stories, so I don't regret that. Finaid box checked.</p>
<p>Stats:
ACT 29 single, 30 combined sittings
SAT IIs: Am Hist 700, English 650
GPA: UC wted 4.1 ish, regular wted 4.33 plus
Rank: doesn't rank but prob top 5 %
AP/IB scores: three 4's, one 3
Courseload: most demanding, accelerated 4 x 4 curriculum</p>
<p>Subjective:
Job/Work Experience: some, political campaign and child care
Essays (subject and responses): about summer research program, very good
Hook (TASP, RSI, Research, etc.): summer tall ship/research program, challenges (parental illness, financial), Speech/Debate awards, Interact Pres /comm svc, Violet Richardson award</p>
<p>Location/Person:
State or Country: CA
School Type: public
Ethnicity: w
Gender:female
Major strength/weakness:strength- overcoming adversity, intellectual curiosity, GPA/demanding curriculum
weakness- test scores?</p>
<p>Other Factors:
General Comments/Congratulations/Venting/Commiserations,etc: rejected by UCLA and Tufts, but who cares???!!! Go CAL!</p>
<p>btw- I think CC info was very helpful to me in knowing what to expect..it's a great reality check</p>
<p>curious, You are right about the high GPA and his test scores were mid 1400's and 2100's. According to our hs scatters, the acceptable/average test scores were low 1400's. The average GPA was slightly his. </p>
<p>Anyway on hindsight I guess I shouldn't have said it was a "surprise" as it would have been had he received a rejection.</p>
<p>Very little surprise on this front: acceptances, waitlist and rejections all lined up consistent with USWNR rankings.</p>
<p>WTH?
"The average GPA was slightly his. "</p>
<p>Yes, it was. Geez I gotta get outa here. What I meant was slightly lower, but who cares. I look back sometimes and wonder about my cognitive/communicative/typing skills.</p>
<p>OK time to walk the dog.</p>
<p>Berurah,</p>
<p>You raise an interesting point. I think that if your kid is truly unique the process can resemble a crap shoot. In these cases the only defense is a large number of applications.</p>