Hi, I’m here although I don’t know that I have much to add to the fine work my colleagues have done.
OP-- if you cannot afford your EFC at Harvard, do not apply. It’s that simple. By the time you’ve paid for airline tickets (even if you are a great and thrifty shopper which I’m sure you are), whatever modest outside scholarships your D can win will be chewed up by incidental expenses. Of the reach list you posted, Princeton is likely to be the most generous if they believe you have financial need. So if you all need a reach in the mix- I’d vote for Princeton.
If your D has no “this is why I’m majoring in Chemical Engineering” burning passion, I’d encourage her to think broadly about a science OR engineering major, and leave it at that. A college which might offer enough merit to come in under your budget, plus have enough of her sports to keep her happy-- is there an ABET engineering program? Does she even know the difference between what Mechanical Engineers do and what Chemical Engineers do? If not- focus on schools with generous merit aid for profiles like hers, and don’t cut the bologna too thin. My physics major son at MIT lasted about two weeks as a physics major, luckily because he found his “true passion” in one of his other required courses. That could be your D. They just don’t have enough exposure in HS to all the cool things that college teaches to be able to specialize so early- and that’s a good thing.
It’s easy to be cavalier about how much work 25 applications can be when it’s August and everyone is bright eyed and bushy tailed about the hunt for merit. it’s always a different story when it’s late December, your D is up to her eyeballs in schoolwork but there are five more essays which need to be written and edited, and she’s just found out that three of her colleges have scholarship weekends which conflict- so she can only attend one of them, and has to let the big money prize go at two of the others.
It is MUCH more import to choose wisely than to be scattershot. For three reasons- 1- your D will be a burnt out mess by Christmas writing all these essays and trying to remember which college requires three SAT 2’s, one of which has to be either Math 1 or Math 2; which college requires no SAT 2’s, and by the way, she’ll be out of town for a tournament and missing an important test so she’ll have to study on the bus… Yikes. Reason 2- The law of diminishing returns. The later essays tend to be not as sharp, not as focused, and not as personal as the early ones. So unless she’s the tippy top kid by stats for that particular college, count on a wear out factor with each successive application. And Reason 3- She can only attend one college. Do the hard work now figuring out how to meet her educational needs and your financial restrictions. The extra work involved in getting an extra thousand bucks (assuming you can afford one of the other places that have admitted her) for a somewhat lesser educational experience- is it worth it? Likely not.
If this were my D, I’d have her lined up at the GC’s office already to make sure that the colleges which you think are safeties are actually safeties. Look at your HS naviance data- not just who got in, but also who got denied. If there’s a commutable option AND your D is willing to live at home-- bingo. There’s your safety. Which is fantastic. If she’s really not willing to live at home but has only muttered that she might be (to keep things pleasant at home) you need to flesh that out- soon. She would not be the only HS kid in America who believes in “Go along to Get along”, but then comes April and her friends are heading to Montreal and Chicago and Boston and buying extra long sheets-- and she’s wondering what the heck she’s agreed to.
Big hug. She sounds great. But if you can’t afford your EFC at a need only college like Harvard, the age of miracles has passed. Move on.