Looking for external opinions - Chance me for UCs

Hello,

I am current junior in rural California. Looking at the UC system… most notably UC Berkeley and UCSB.

Major: Physics

GPA: 3.94 UW/ 4.17 UC Capped/ 4.56 Weighted
SAT: 1520 (800 Math, 720 EBRW)
SAT Subject: Math II (790), Chemistry (700)- I am retaking, Physics (TBD)
AP Classes/Scores: AP Calc AB (5) AP Human Geography (5) AP Calc BC (TBD) APES (TBD) AP Lang (TBD) AP Physics 1 (TBD)
Extracurriculars
Science Olympiad: participant on state team (states got cancelled due to COVID 19) and won at regional level
Science Fair: won at regional level last year, regionals cancelled due to COVID 19 this year
Orchestra: 2nd chair viola
Academic Decathlon: co-president of club
Collegeboard National Recognition Program

Also forgot to mention that I have already taken 11 Community College courses with Geology, Public Speaking, and multivariable calculus coming up this summer and senior year.

http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/university-california-general/2174563-2019-uc-freshman-admit-rates-updated.html may help you.

You may want to apply to a wider range of UCs. Also, your intended major matters, since some majors or divisions on a given campus are more selective than others.

I’m applying to all except Riverside.

Some 2019 applicant admit data for the UC’s to help gauge your chances. It is impossible to chance anyone since the UC’s can be unpredictable. Overall you look competitive and UC’s tend to be more GPA focused vs. test focused especially for 2021 admits.

2019 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19 capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 12%
UCLA: 7%
UCSD: 33%
UCSB: 32%
UCD: 47%
UCI: 35%
UCSC: 72%
UCR: 87%

2019 UC capped weighted GPA averages along with 25th-75th percentile range:
UCB: 4.23 (4.15-4.30)
UCLA: 4.25 (4.18-4.32)
UCSD: 4.16 (4.03-4.28)
UCSB: 4.16 (4.04-4.28)
UCI: 4.13 (4.00-4.25)
UCD: 4.13 (4.00-4.26)
UCSC: 3.96 (3.76-4.16)
UCR: 3.90 (3.69-4.11)
UCM: 3.73 (3.45-4.00)

2019 Data:
25th - 75th percentiles for SAT totals:
UCB: 1340-1540

UCLA: 1330-1550
UCSD: 1300-1520
UCSB: 1280-1520
UCD: 1230-1490
UCI: 1250-1510
UCSC: 1200-1450
UCR: 1130-1400
UCM: 1020-1290

Best of luck.

Thank you.

A quick question about GPA Calculation… do I include all transferrable college courses, or only the ones used to fulfill high school requirements? Because if I include all, my capped GPA is 4.17 but if I include only the ones that count towards high school requirements, my capped GPA is 4.25

You include all UC transferable classes in the UC GPA calculation.