<p>you can't talk about college admission as if it is the same as flipping a coin. keep flipping a coin, eventually it should come up heads. keep applying to selective school does NOT mean eventually one will admit you.</p>
<p>you can't say its an X% chance and treat this as purely a statisical issue. there are unknown variable at play - and they vary with each applicant and with each school.</p>
<p>if anything it is this type of thought process that has led to the explosion in applicaiton numbers - which in turn are making admission even more selective.</p>