<p>
[quote]
The odds favor rejection at each indvidual school, but if you apply to enough schools you can get to a reasonable chance of getting into ONE of them.
[/quote]
No, because it is not a random process. And if the same basic application is used for each school, then the same flaws in the application may torpedo chances for each school. Of course the student is not aware of the flaws -- perhaps a recommendation letter that damns with faint praise, perhaps an essay that falls flat -- but the point is that it is a very subjective determination. And the more applications the student makes, the harder it is to focus genuine, individualized effort on each.</p>