@deacxx , I think you’re asking the type of question that is not usually answered (or maybe even rarely asked on CC.)
My advice would be to apply to the schools you want to attend. There is no harm in dreaming, and in fact, dreaming big can help to landing big results. Still, be sure to include at least a couple of true targets, and a couple of true safties.
My son is in the same boat as you, with some of the same schools. Wake Forest is one of his favorites, as is UNC and NCSU. Not to mention several other schools where his stats would be considered to be in the lower 25%, or below the middle 50.
The reality is, the middle 50 leaves room below for at least 1/4 of a schools accepted freshmen. Some of those lowest 25% will be hooked, as mentioned, but some were also accepted for other reasons, such as a great essay, or great ECs, or because an AO connected with the applicant for some reason and pushed for admission.
Another reality is, no one here can tell you to feel comfortable/confident in your chances if your stats are below the middle 50. With your GPA, you have half the battle won. I would say apply to as many of your near-reaches as you can afford and just wait and see. I know it’s hard to be patient, but that’s really your only option. Many of us are in the same boat.
Good luck.