You really need to figure out how much you can afford. If you are high income, you can certainly get merit aid, but in most cases, it effectively is a discount on very expensive private tuition. You’ll still need to figure out how to pay the balance, and that will also mean figuring out much debt you can take on. It may be that after you’ve done these calculation, your state school may be more affordable, even if you get $25,000/year in merit aid.
If you look at the threads for Denison, Dickinson, Clark, Earlham, Gettysburg, Kenyon, Oberlin, W&L, Muhlenberg, etc., you’ll start to get a feel from what the awards are and what the stats of the recipients were, and you can work backwards from there.