<p>Actually, I can't tell people everything that goes into it. I'm not an admissions reader, and I didn't sit in on the training they gave admissions readers. I know some anecdotes, I know what Michigan says it looks for, I know what sorts of students rougly get what rating. However, the process is not transparent.</p>
<p>That's the thing with a "holistic" system. You can't figure out the formula because there isn't one.</p>
<p>There may seem to be similarities with the old points system, but to my knowledge the admissions readers are new to the job (new two years ago, that is) and were not a part of the admissions office when the index/points system was in place. They may make similar decisions because Michigan's values haven't changed that much since then, but they're not (say, subconsciously) using the old system.</p>
<p>On the overall "unpredictability" thing--there are two places where unpredictability can come into play, because admissions is a two-stage process. One is how people are rated. That is, what admissions readers decide after they read your application, how to they rate each candidate? Is this student an Admit, an Admit Plus, a High Admit, etc? U-M works hard to make sure that doesn't vary wildly from year to year. </p>
<p>The second stage is enrollment management, which is deciding what to do with all the people in a certain rating group, and when. This is driven by admissions targets (which can change each year, overall and by residency), yield (which also can change each year) and app volume (which, you guessed it, can change each year). This is where you are seeing most variability. In one year they may have said "go ahead and take some students rated Admit" in November, and in another year they may have said "Only High Admits" in November.</p>
<p>I realize that to most candidates, these two stages don't matter--you will never see what your rating was, and the only thing that matters is what leads to the decision you get (the second part). But it's important to realize that admissions can be doing everything pretty much the same as they did in previous years in terms of reading your app--but things can look very different to YOU because of the enrollment management aspect.</p>