<p>I am thankful to have kept my kids stats private as well as his school choices because as I read thru posts, I truly find it just a little uncomfortable when I see "what are my chances" types of questions...and people shoot them down sometimes so bluntly! I'm curious as to who actually on CC are admissions counselors? I would think none of us are mind readers and these small snap shots do not come close to unveiling the entire application or holistic reviews of these students. I don't like seeing folks tell a kid based on purely incomplete stats that they are way out of their league. While I appreciate, them encouraging students to look at other schools- telling them don't bother seems a bit harsh. I bet a small percentage could still get in, they are more than their scores. I've see student's say they have a 33 ACT score and folks say oh "that is not good enough". Ouch really? What about the rest of the student's information? Hopefully these kids take some of this with a grain of salt and persevere but I'm afraid some won't. There is WAY more to the story and I hope others remember we are not mind readers for the admissions team. (well at least I'm not) </p>
<p>I don’t like chances threads at all. But the kids do!</p>
<p>Nobody is mind reader but I thin once you ask for chances I tell them how I see it. </p>
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<p>Actually, there are no Monday morning QBs but plenty of, to stick to the football analogy, experts of the morons who predict the NFL results in August or the are actually setting up the NCAA preseason rankings. Many are paid to offer “expert advice” and, regardless of their perennial misguided expertise, they will show up the next year. Who many experts do you know who predicted the Seahawks would be 3-3 and the Cowboys 6-1? </p>
<p>Regarding the WAMC, I hope you realize that nobody who talks about admissions with a grain of seriousness pays ANY attention to that cesspool. It probably was created to offer a bit of comical relief and entertainment to the kiddos. The fact that is the one-eyed leading the blind is irrelevant to the real world. People read their horoscopes fully knowing it is utter BS. Same thing for the kids who post in that forum. </p>
<p>As far as encouraging kids to apply to schools that do not match their profile, it is a double-edged sword when the students fail to start from the bottom. Many of us have heard about the valedictorians who are pegged as “shoo-in” at name your favorite Ivy. The problem is that there 30 or 40,000 valedictorians graduating each year! </p>
<p>I would suggest to adopt the common sense to simply ignore the posts that are “measuring the chances” as well as the biased recommendations for school XYZ to anonymous applicants! Both types are just silly! </p>
<p>If you chance me, I will chance you back. It’s kind of like, if I could predict interest rate I wouldn’t be doing what I am doing now.</p>
<p>Hopefully kids on a college track are bright enough to realize that CC is only one data point, and a subjective one at that.</p>
<p>They want to reassure themselves or boast online or prove a point.
I usually go to say things like “What’s your parents’ budget?”
(Amazingly, many never thought of that aspect and many even think it’s irrelevant…)</p>
<p>Honestly, chance threads appear to be mostly for high school students to brag or intimidate each other or otherwise reassure themselves that they are on the right track for whatever their dream goal is. I don’t really think that they get too many visits from actual admissions counselors. Even an actual counselor probably couldn’t actually tell someone, “you are guaranteed to get into Harvard,” The best you can do is tell someone, “Your SATs are in the median range for students accepted to this college” or “That college requires you to take SAT subject tests in addition to the SATs, so you should go ahead and do that.” Anything else is prognostication.</p>
<p>They aren’t really “Monday morning quarterbacks”, they are more like insecure Nostradamuses (Nostradami?)</p>
<p>Well, some advice seems useful, like when the kid with the 2.6 GPA explains that he doesn’t do his homework assignments but wants to get into Brown. I work on an admissions committee for graduate school (and have teen kids) so I find this all fascinating. There is so much talk here about essays - my grad committee spends so little time reading them but perhaps that is a grad vs undergrad thing.</p>
<p>Your grad school committee only spends little time evaluating a … personal statement? Interesting! </p>
<p>^ Honestly, there is little variation in them Everyone describes how they came to realize that they loved the discipline. Then they all talk about how important the problems addressed in our discipline are. Then they conclude by explaining how our department is the right one for them. The letters of recommendation are much more informative.</p>
<p>@CheddarcheeseMN, grad school admissions (especially in the research fields) are <em>very</em> different from undergrad admissions to elite schools, I hope you realize, and that’s because they have different aims. A grad school department is looking for kids who will go on to do great things in one subject. Undergrad adcoms want to fill a class with kids that hopefully are amazing and will do great things, but undergrads will likely change their major & interest several times and they’re not fully-formed human beings. Plus, unlike profs, HS teachers and other folks writing recs may be an uneven bunch. Granted, those universities who admit by undergraduate school or major may operate more like grad school adcoms, but even there, diversity and special strengths outside the discipline matter.</p>
<p>I’ve also heard about certain state schools putting a heavy weight on essays. I suppose because there is so much variation in the quality of the education HS kids receive and teachers that HS kids have, but state schools are suppose to serve all segments of their state population and don’t want to be biased (so for instance, Cal supposedly throws away all recommendation letters without reading them).</p>
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<p>UCs and CSUs do not use recommendation letters (CSUs other than CPSLO rank applicants by a stats formula, with thresholds by campus, major, local status, and in-state status).</p>
<p>Recommendation letters for undergraduate admissions are probably very “noisy” in that a recommendation letter’s influence may have a lot to do with the recommender, as opposed to the student. Using them probably also disadvantages first generation or low income students who may not realize that they are needed until too late (and the teachers are busy with other students’ letters). But it would not be surprising if one of the big reasons that UCs and CSUs do not require them is to avoid putting extra load on the high schools or causing the high schools to become bottlenecks in the application process (the UC and CSU application processes require no support from the high school).</p>
<p>Wish they would make a chances thread filter!</p>
<p>The worst answers come from other students. E.g., “You’re a shoe in” or “Give it up” and their ilk. But there is no point telling a high school student to be more polite or even more realistic.</p>
<p>My own answers tend to be in the context of Common Data Set numbers. I think it’s fairly responsible to write things like, “Your ACT score is below the 25th percentile. Try to improve that.” What I find odd is how few students look at a CDS or even a user-friendly site like Cappex to see these data for themselves. A lot of chance threads could disappear.</p>
<p>I don’t think it is ever wise to be diffinitive.</p>
<p>IMHO, it is just as bad is telling a kid with a 22 ACT that they have the same chance of admission to the Ivies as everyone else, so they don’t feel bad.</p>
<p>I agree with so many of you. I’m not one that feels “everyone should get a trophy” but I do sometimes wish for a more supportive way to tell a kid at times they should investigate further what the median stats are for the college that they are considering and try looking at some others too. 
Since I’m relatively new to this forum, I am just scrolling thru reading and quickly absorbing some good information. Some sound so pressured and overscheduled and a kinder reality dose is always warranted in my mind. This is a stressful time! </p>