<p>Well I do not know about the rest of the US but in my household, with all of the talk about this coming year being the most competitive, my DD is thinking seriously about a gap year. We all might be surprised by the outcome. I think folks might try alternative paths ... at least for a year or two at which time the odds are suppose to get a bit better.</p>
<p>What are your thoughts??</p>
<p>I think we might have reached a "tipping point" ...</p>
<p>I hear the same thing each and every year. Probably not going to get any better</p>
<p>It is going to be competitive until the end of the boomlet which will be about another 2 to 3 years.</p>
<p>I've read the same thing. 2 - 3 more years before it starts to ease off. The last chart I saw documenting this issue (linked off of some other forum thread), the peak years will be fall '09 and '10 for incoming freshmen, but no serious relief until about '12 or '13.</p>
<p>Annika</p>
<p>So you do not think the PR and hype will have much impact? .. I think there has been a shift ...</p>
<p>Some schools are asking their admitted to take a gap year ... others are requesting they take a year abroad as a freshman ...i am also hearing of more smart kids considering the CC route to save for grad school .. the alternatives are becoming more acceptable up the hierarchy.</p>
<p>If my DD does not get into one her preferred colleges, she will probably take a gap year, follow a passion or two and at the end be in a better position to get into one of her preferred schools ... vs. settling for a less preferred school at the smae cost.</p>
<p>This game/race seems so nutty.</p>
<p>I know at least in California, the CCCs are mostly under populated - and transfering to a first choice UC is relatively easy. With a certain GPA and a TAA, the transfer can be guaranteed to quite a few of the UCs. The game is nutty, but in California, that would be a route I'd advise many students to consider - save a lot of money, side-step some of the competition, get to the same end point.</p>
<p>While the baby boomlet competition might mean that the top tier schools are harder to get into...there is still likely room for everyone if they are okay with being bumped down slightly (ie: in a soft year maybe a student could make it into a top 50 school, but in tough competition years a top 100 school). Think about it - is school #75 all that much more awful than #50? At some point there is a definite cut-off of quality... but from a practical standpoint, it isn't that different 25 or so place markings in a category. Some people can't stand the idea of it -- hopefully they are the students who are competitive enough with their academic record to not be hit too hard with the slide...</p>
<p>Annika</p>
<p>Any thoughts on how the recession might impact college admissions and enrollment?</p>
<p>I am strongly urging my DD to stay in the west ... knowing travel costs will continue to increase.</p>
<p>It is interesting that you should be talking about this being such a boom year. For our private schools here in the Cincinnati area this (2009) class is the final small class and we have heard that on a couple of visits. That next year is when the next wave of boom starts. But with the current state of economy who knows what that may signal for anyone.</p>
<p>For the population that hangs out here the end of the boom echo is a non-event. There will always be increasing numbers of applicants chasing spots at the top 25 schools.</p>
<p>The opportunity lies in the schools that will not be oversubscribed. </p>
<p>HYPSM will be ever more competitive as people get more and more hysterical and entitled about their kids. Top tier flagship state schools may get even MORE competitive as fewer people can afford anything else than in state public. </p>
<p>The schools that will be hurt are the Lehighs, the Santa Claras, the Trinities and the St. Olafs. </p>
<p>Admissions at HYPS may become even MORE competitive in spite of the lower level of competition because in general everybody is trying to get their kid in HYPS-that's not gonna change anytime soon, and the perception that there is less competition may attract students who today don't bother because they read all of the literature about how competitive the pool is due to high birth rates.</p>
<p>I suspect that the deteriorating economy will start to impact college decisions. And those people who were planning to fund it with a home equity line may find that they do not have the anticipated equity. Also, they may not want the uncertainty of a variable rate with the possibility of increasing inflation. </p>
<p>From a demographics point-of-view, I've read that the echo boom peak for graduating high schoolers is 09, with 08 and 10 at almost the same level.</p>
<p>I thought the boom peaked this year?</p>
<p>This was the peak year, but the bad news is that the trend is not going to drop off in the 2 to 3 years. I recently saw some articles (unfortunately I can't remember where) say that in general the numbers will be going up for a number of reasons other than just birth rates for some time. There may have been an article in Bus Week, but as I said can't remember where. Bottom line it is not going to get much better soon.</p>
<p>The other demographic change to note is where the population of teenagers lives-- there is a regional shift occurring. The population of teenagers stagnates in the north and midwest, while increases in the west and south. I agree that the Ivies will not see much of a drop off of applications, but other Northeast schools that get few applicants from states like Nevada and Arizona may have problems.</p>
<p>I'm looking at a handout I got at some conference in 2003 that shows population predictions. 2007-08 was the peak in the Northeast and midwest; the south peaks in 2009-10. There is predicted to be a slight decline in population between 2007/2008 and 2014/2015, but then the numbers go up again. The school-age population in 2014/2015 is predicted to be the same as in 2005-2006.</p>
<p>If you look at this pdf file, you will see the projected numbers for high school graduates in the US: Projections</a> of Education Statistics to 2012 . The peak 3 years in order of size are: 2009, 2008 and 2010. After that, it starts to decline. However, keep in mind that the hs class of 2011 roughly compares with the hs class of 2007. It will be a few more years before relief is in sight from an applicant point of view.</p>
<p>My suggestion is don't worry about the demographics ... it is not something you can control. In addition I'd look at this issue with a "macro" view and not a "micro" view. I believe the 2009 seniors are the peak year over the next decade or so ... however the difference year to year is quite small. Said another way ... there are almost twice as seniors as when I applied to colleges 30 year ago and kids are appliying to more schools so the number of applicants today dwarfs the number of applicants from the late 70s ... if there are 1% more applicants in 2009 than in 2007 or 2008 is really inconsequential in comparison.</p>
<p>i am also hearing of more smart kids considering the CC route to save for grad school .</p>
<p>Isn't it better for smart kids to go to in-state 4 year college on Merit scholarships to save for grad school? Total cost might be even cheaper than CC. There are full rides, full tuitions, job opportunities at colleges for top students. There are still a lot of funds available for smart kids.</p>
<p>I believe that Burb parent, and MiamiDAP are right. I don't think that universities have seen the changes that are about to take place yet, but I predict changes in college choice. I believe that many more students will attend their instate public, or look to their CC to save money. Costs for OOS public Us, and most private Us have just gotten so out of hand. I believe that they are becoming places for the wealthy, or for middle class and poor students who choose to go into ridiculous amounts of debt.</p>
<p>Fact: The average admissions rate nationally for all colleges is 70%. Believe it or not, that hasn't changed significantly in the past five years. </p>
<p>Another Fact: According to a national survey of over 260,000 freshmen conducted every year by UCLA, around 72% report they are attending their first or second choice college. That also hasn't changed significantly.</p>
<p>Another Fact: Of the 2600 plus four year colleges in the U.S., only 135 have admit rates below 50%. That also hasn't changed significantly.</p>
<p>If you're applying solely to schools that admit 1 out of every 10 kids, yep, things look pretty risky and competitive. If you read the boards here, you're also going to feel pretty anxious about things, because, let's face it, the type of parents and students who post here tend to be pretty anxious about things in general and mass anxiety breeds individual anxiety.</p>
<p>BUT, for anyone who has a realistic list comprised of great colleges at different levels of selectivity, the odds are EXCELLENT that you will be admitted to college this fall. In fact, the college list is also key to making sure you can afford to attend college, as more and more colleges are using financial aid leveraging to attract desirable students.</p>
<p>I wouldn't take a gap year out of fear. Gap years should be taken because the student needs some time off, and wants to experience life outside of academe before diving into college. </p>
<p>While it is normal to feel some anxiety when diving into an uncertain situation, no one should be running in fear. There is NO shortage of seats in American colleges for anyone who wants to attend college. Of course, those who will only accept seats at CERTAIN colleges --- those that reject most applicants --- will be taking a bigger risk than those who have a well-thought out list, but, really, with careful planning and an open mind, there is no need for anyone to fear they won't get into college. Paying for it, of course, is a different matter. :)</p>