However…one’s analysis is only as good as your raw numbers. If raw numbers are off, then your analysis will be off.
538 is not really a news site; it is a statistical site. But, it fell into the same trap as the MSM media without really wanting to. 538 took polls that were demographically-structured specifically to give a certain result, i,e, the raw numbers were off intentionally, and gave those polls the same statistical weight as demographically correct polls.
The result was even 538 final numbers was too high a chance for Clinton and too low a chance for Trump because the vast majority of polls were just plain demographically set-up to provide a better picture for Clinton. Therefore, its analysis of the numbers was correct, but it never analyzed to see to if it was using bad numbers.
That is the glaring weakness of 538 - it does not produce its own raw data; it only analyzes other’s raw data without regard to checking the statistical accuracy of that raw data and adjusting for errors that data set. It takes the data producers word for it. I stopped following it early on when I realized this weakness.