MSU: What are my chances?

Hello!

I’m thinking about applying to Michigan State University, but not sure if I can make it in. To keep it simple, here are my stats and general information
Race: White
Gender: Male
Preferred Major: Computer Science
First-Generation.

GPA: 3.3UW; 3.393W
SAT(new): 1150(retaking in Nov.) 600 Math, 550 Writing + Reading
Rigor:
8 AP’s: Chemistry, Stats, Psych, US History, World History, Lang, Lit, Computer Science
6 Honors: Chem, English 9 and 10, Bio, Pre-Calc, Physics
EC:
German Club
4 years competitive marching band
4 years jazz band
Achievements:
Solo Ensemble 3 years medalist
Selected for the National Academy of Future Scientists and Technologists Award of Excellence
Leadership council for the marching band
Section leader 1 year for jazz band.

Now, according to MSU’s common data set, my GPA is bit on the low side. I know their average(50%) is ranging anywhere from 3.4-3.8. Mine is a 3.3, but if I get wait-listed, I would meet their average criteria by semester 1 of this year(senior year!). On the other hand, my SAT comparing to the common data set is right in the most popular areas(so about 50% or higher).

I would like to mention that I have a positive trend in my grades. My freshmen year being the worse, and my junior year being the highest as of now.

I would also like to mention that I screwed up freshmen year. Coming in from middle school, we moved. Moving to another school was very stressful for me and my siblings. Grades were not my top priority, me not how important the grades were yet.

Is there a way I could mention, possibly in the personal statement, that I screwed up freshmen year?

In terms of improving my chances, is there anything I could do at this point to increase my chance? I will be submitting my application in the next couple weeks here to be apart of the early action process. I heard that checking “no” on the application for financial aid might improve chances

Please give me realistic answers! Thank you!

You have a good chance.