Just one other thought - if your school has Naviance data and/or counselors who closely track who gets in where over time, that might give you a sense just in terms of chances of admission based on the more objective indicators (test scores, grades, rank). Parchment also has a tool where you can input this data and get an estimated chance of admission.
Obviously as gibby mentioned those kinds of indicators are only part of the story of who does or doesn’t get in, but it’s a start.
I would assume there’s more of an advantage to applying early at Duke or Penn than Yale as those schools have binding ED and Yale has non-binding EA, but on the other hand with ED you need to be sure you’ll be happy at that school.