Hey guys,
According to Trevor Packer, this year’s score percentages were as follows: 5: 4.1%; 4: 12.8%; 3: 20%; 2: 30.2%; 1: 32.9%. With a 63.1% rate of failure on this year’s test, it is obvious that the curve has become substantially worse compared to that of the former course ‘AP Physics B’. The average score on AP Physics B in the past four years has consistently been approximately 2.91, whereas on AP Physics 1, the average score has now dropped to a 2.25. Understandably, such poor performance can be linked to it being the first year this exam was offered or the lack of information provided to students/educators; still, in my opinion, the data provided by Trevor Packer can be utilized to estimate the curve for this year’s exam. This can better better help future students on here generally expecting a “4/5” to understand approximately at what level they should perform to attain such.
The AP Physics B exam had a composite of 180 (as does AP Physics 1) and generally, between 115-180 points would result in a score of 5. Between 91 and 114 would result in a score of 4. Between 63 and 90 would result in a score of 3. Between 49 and 62 would result in a score of 2, and of course, anything below this range would result in a score of 1.
The AP Physics 1 exam consists of 50 multiple choice questions followed by 5 FRQ’s. Each section is weighted equally at 50%. From Dan Fullerton’s posting of the free response solutions, my performance on the full practice exam (which I expect to differ slightly from that on the actual exam) and my memory of the actual exam, I am able to predict the magnitudes of this year’s curve. From Dan Fullerton’s solutions to the five FRQ’s, I assume I answered 75% of the questions correctly. On the other hand, my performance on the CB practice multiple choice was a 20/50. I did not answer three questions at the end (multiple-select questions). I am going to assume my performance on the multiple choice questions of the real exam was approximately the same as that of the practice exam, aside from my answering of all 50 MC’s. Due to the easiness of the multi-select questions on this exam, I am going to assume I answered at least three correctly. Thus, I assume about 46% of my multiple choice responses to be correct.
This information is useful assuming I am a slightly-above-average AP Physics 1 student. For the AP Physics B curve, my performance on the MC’s would provide me a 75% chance of attaining a 3 (which so happened to be my score on the Physics 1 exam). Combining my performance on the FRQ’s and the MC’s indicates I had approximately 61% of the exam correct and scored a 3. On the AP Physics B curve, my performance on the FRQ’s would have boosted my score to a 4. Note: this also indicates an increased harshness of the curve for Physics 1 that should be taken into account.
If I create a proportion such that the lowest possible percentage on Physics B to attain a 5 (64%) over the highest possible percentage to attain a 3 on Physics B (50%) is equal to a variable over my percentage on Physics 1 (61%), I can predict the minimum percentage needed on this exam to attain a 5. Here, I assume I scored a high 3 in that my percentage was somewhere near the cutoff for a 4. Solving for this variable gives 78% as the minimum percentage for a 5 on this exam. In retrospect, someone on the official thread posted a similar percentage as their teacher’s prediction of the cutoff for a 5. With that said, there appears to be an incredibly narrow margin between a 3 and a 4 on this exam.
To those who scored a 3 this year on AP Physics 1, this curve estimate predicts a 75% chance on approximate of scoring at least a 4 on AP Physics B in the last 5 years or so. For those looking to attain particular scores, here are the predictions from my estimate:
5: 78-100%
4: 62-77%
3: 43-61%
2: 33-41%
Note to those taking AP Physics 1 in the coming years: I hope you may find my estimate of the AP Physics 1 curve to be useful and beneficial. Generally, my teacher prepared me for this exam as he would AP Physics B, which is why I have a knowledge of AP Physics B’s curve statistics despite taking Physics 1. While I would not recommend for you to prepare for the AP Physics B exam with Physics 1 resources now available, if you’re going to take a Physics B practice test out of curiosity, you may find my curve to be useful. Let’s say you take a Physics B practice test relating to the exam from 2009 at earliest, so 70 MC’s and 6-7 FRQ’s. If you are scoring in the higher ends of my curve, so around 77%, 61%, or 41%, you should expect your score on AP Physics 1 to differ by 75%. That means equivalently, you should be confident with 68% of Physics B to score at least a 3 and at least 40% to score at least a 2 on Physics 1 respectively. Remember 16.9% of students scored the coveted 4/5 this year with only Physics B resources available. Get to the point where you can score 100.6% of what you need to get a 5 on Physics B and utilize whatever has been made available to you. As long as the curve is consistent in the coming years (which it should be for at least 5 years), there is approximately a 75% chance you can score a 4 or a 5. I hope I have helped you in some way, shape, or form. Please provide me any questions or commentary.