National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

@ambitionsquared I got the same exact index as you (217) in CA…we may barely make it, or barely miss it. According to the concordance tables we wouldn’t make it, but idk if that’s an accurate way to predict. I’m sure that we will at least get commended.

What are he weighted subject scores for each subject? I thought they were all 38 points for each subject.

Is the highest possible SI score 228?

Is a 223 good for Connecticut or no

i got 99%tile all around. I got a 214 SI and Illinois’ SI last year was 215. Does anyone have any ideas for how that will play out.

I am confused about the two tables on the concordance chart. My DD got a 1470. According to the table on the right
side, this is like a 223 in past years??? If so, the state cutoff in VA last year was 222. Does this mean that she is probably qualifying this year? Perhaps the 220 SI is more important? Anyone know?

The concordance is a little confusing. If I look at the table for scores, he gets 211 as a SI. If I add up individual sections from the concordanc, it’s 213. And his score report is 216. So many numbers. So little actual information.

My best guess: 228/240 x last year’s cutoff score

Alabama 199
Alaska 196
Arizona 204
Arkansas 194
California 212
Colorado 204
Connecticut 209
Delaware 205
DC 214
Florida 203
Georgia 207
Hawaii 203
Idaho 198
Illinois 204
Indiana 202
Iowa 198
Kansas 202
Kentucky 200
Louisiana 200
Maine 200
Maryland 211
Massachusetts 212
Michigan 200
Minnesota 203
Mississippi 199
Missouri 199
Montana 194
Nebraska 199
Nevada 200
N Hampshire 202
N Jersey 214
N Mexico 198
N York 208
N Carolina 204
N Dakota 192
Ohio 204
Oklahoma 198
Oregon 204
Pennsylvania 206
R Island 201
S Carolina 200
S Dakota 192
Tennessee 201
Texas 209
Utah 196
Vermont 203
Virginia 211
Washington 208
W Vir ginia 192
Wisconsin 198
Wyoming 192

yes

@arwarw I couldn’t disagree more. Your best guess merely takes 12 points off of last year’s cutoffs. It won’t be anywhere close to that. And in fact, in some states, the cutoff may actually be higher than last year. To take but one example, a 212 will not make the cut in California. No way, no how, no chance. MY best guess for California is 220.

@arwarw Not sure that helps anyone.

My son got a 1470 and SI of 218. I interpret the concordance table to mean that the current 1470 is equated to a 223. from prior years but that does not mean anything definite in terms of the actual “to be developed” State cut -off SI scores at this point (they come out in September I think) but hopefully the state cut-offs will be downwardly adjusted some (maybe 4-6 points?) because of the change in the scaling from 240 to 228 and this being the first administration of the new test format. However, if too may students scored much differently than expected, then cut-offs could stay the same or go up - could vary by state I believe.

If you are in the 99th percentile composite, do you automatically qualify for National Merit Semi-finalist? Please help!!! Thank you <3

that’s what I’m worried about too!!

@superbular I’m sorry but it doesn’t workl that way. There is nothing “automatic” about being in the 99th percentile. Depends on your index score and the state where you live.

Prepscholar posted guesses for state cutoffs way back in september. Those were way lower than in previous years

Asking for a friend:
1470, 221 SI, chances at semifinalist?

@profdad2021 That’s because the total is now out of 228.

@mathyone posted on the other thread the best explanation given:

If you do that and your score is above historical levels for your state, you are probably going to make NMSF.

@appgodxoxo what state? Impossible to guess without knowing the state.