Just for grins, I want to be the 1000th post in this ridiculous thread.
@Chembiodad Those scores were the MEAN out of top 100 scores, which means the MEAN of top 60 scores â assuming 30th high score is the cutoff for NMSF â will be higher, I am guessing 218 SI based on my educated guess that Walton will have around 30 NMSFs this year.
For the class of 2016, Walton had 16 NMSFâs:
Not sure if this is still useful info. or not.
@websensation, understand, but I think we need to step back and understand that EWR could tilt the windmill more this year if M was easier / EWR more difficult; my DD1 scored a 1440/219 as a result of 760 EWR and 680 M - how many others are in the same boat?
Thank you for that @CA1543. Itâs the first time we are seeing any real data for junior test takers.
@websensation Isnât âmeanâ the "average & âmedianâ the number in the middle of a range? http://dictionary.reference.com/help/faq/language/d72.html Just not sure what you are referring to in post 1001.
@GMTplus7 - wow over 1000 posts - when I started this thread I certainly could not have imagined weâd have so many contributions, observations, wonderings & musings!
We are all learning a lot along the way - not just about the PSAT & NM process - pretty interesting stuff. 
@SLParent - welcome & thanks to others helping us make sense of it & trying to get more useful data - state summaries hopefully will be out by next week. But I imagine weâll find some more juicy tidbits to noodle on in the meantime!
@Pickmen, the link you provided is for installment 3 published in Oct 2015.in your post #948, you mentioned data collected from âbetween Dec. 8, 2014, and Feb. 20, 2015.â
I have the latest update installment 4, published in Dec 2015, seem like CB included data collected for OCT 2015 PSAT (not sure?). The link is
@Tgirlfriend As for predictions, I canât back it up with numbers but my gut tells me that the cutoffs are going to be much higher than expected. My analysis - anecdotal evidence that the PSAT was easier this year plus one million more PSAT test takers than in previous years plus the same number of NMSFs = VERY high state cutoffs. Hopefully one of the math experts here will obliterate my simplistic analysis, but, until then, Iâm sticking with my gut.
Thoughts about âtheyâre good at math, and math is penalized, so maybe their SIs will be lowerâ.
I doubt it. We know the average of the top 100 at Walton was 1453. The lowest SI you can get with a 1453 is ((693*2 + 760)/10 = 214.6. And thatâs if you got a perfect math score! A 750 math yields an SI of 215.6, and then we are back to their average of 740, with an SI of 216.6. So the only way their SIâs are lower is if you assume that a lot of them made perfect math scores. But if a lot made 760, to get to an average of 740 would be tough. Maybe they did - the math section was clearly very easy for good students. But I wouldnât count on it.
By the way, the highest SI with a 1453 is (760*2 + 693)/10 = 221.3
Havenât heard about anyone with perfect scores this year. How many on CC have perfect or near perfect scores?
@CA1543 â this thread has been a great learning experience. In the same boat here I think as a lot folks, but with scores looking to be on the high side my DD probably wonât make it, even though her composite score, user percentile and SI are all in the 99% reported range. Oh well, the money would have nice but dems da breaksâŠOn a different note all the discussion on this thread has got me thinking about the PSAT and SAT and it seems there is a serious âflawâ in the divergence btwn the math and verbal. My son took the SAT last June in 8th grade as he was 2x accl and very bored and we thought he should be 3x jumped (not that uncommon where he goes to school). Anyways he smoked the math portion of the SAT but his verbal was middle 500s. I donât think heâs unusual. I think a significant amount of 7 and 8th graders could get perfect scores on the math PSAT and I donât know how you design a test to avoid this sort of compression at the top. Maybe the SI index scoring is an attempt to do so but I donât think itâs working.
@WorryHurry 411âŠexcellent question. Not close hereâŠ221
Walton in GA is like St. Johnâs in HoustonâŠa small school with about 25% of students make NMSF.
âI donât know how you design a test to avoid this sort of compression at the top.â
Easy
Step 1: Put some really, really hard questions.
Step 2: Donât recenter the curve.
There was no compression at the top prior to the 1995 recentering. CB WANTS to create compression at the top.
@mnpapa29, we now know EXACTLY how many more junior students took the PSAT vs last year.
2015: 1,858,984 juniors took the PSAT/NMSQT
2014: 1,595,486 juniors took the PSAT/NMSQT
Gain of: 263,498.
Guess who does tutoring at this school? Applerouth.
http://www.waltonhigh.org/news.cfm
Look at the SAT and ACT announcement
You have to sort by July 2015
@Speedy2019 That is not the correct number of jrs. I believe that is the number of sophomores. The number of jrs was 1,724,416.
@Speedy2019 Thanks - not sure where I got the one million number, but I appreciate knowing the exact number. Still⊠263K MORE test takers and the same number of NMSFs must mean something, right? Thatâs a pretty big jump. Believe me, Iâd be happy to be proven wrong.