FYI, I just posted a somewhat non-trivial analysis based on a monte-carlo simulation of the Cobb county data that I did. I put it in a separate thread, so it wouldn’t clutter up this one. It’s here:
@dallaspiano The reason I was using Walton only is that the data from Wheeler is peculiar. I have no guess as to why. Only 37% of their students took the PSAT (why?) - they only had 145 test takers. So, “top 100 scores” is 2/3 of their test takers. They have a higher mean than Walton (1285 vs 1207) but a lower “top 100” mean (1378 vs 1453). 600 kids, 98% test takers, and top 100 out of 600 - those numbers are more useful to me.
Now off to ponder @thshadow numbers…
@dallaspiano wrote "The lowest 99+%tile for Oct 2015 PSAT is 1440 (TS). And I assume CB will not change number for lowest 99+%tile (CB in business for at least 50 years, it’s low chance for them to change their number).
Base on those facts, I would say the highest ever cut off for 8 states ---- 1440"
In my opinion, you should stop using this year’s percentile tables completely. Seriously. They’re bogus. You believe the cutoff for the highest states will be 1440. Walton High School, which averages 18 NMSF per year in a state which does not have one of the highest cutoffs, had a “Top 100” average of 1453. If the high cutoffs were 1440, then GA’s cutoff would be 1430 or 1420, and Walton would have 80+ NMSF. There’s no way that’s gonna happen.
@thshadow thanks for the Monte Carlo sim. Can you clarify then that a score between 1396 and 1510 would make the cutoff in GA? Doesn’t seem right. This encompasses an SI range of 210-228 but I’m probably reading it wrong. Maybe what you’ve done is made a simulation relating to each specific school district about the score needed to get to the cutoff based on historical data. Even so the spread seems too large.
Why are we continuing to use Total score instead of SI in these discussions? Total Score means nothing.
I think that’s just due to what particular info. is released on that Cobb County article, @suzyQ7. The article talks about total score and not SI
Also, why is it that the ‘understanding scores’ PDF is impossible to find on the CB site? I’ve gotten to it only via the links here- I can’t find it by browsing the site myself. Does anyone know where it is?
@DoyleB “In my opinion, you should stop using this year’s percentile tables completely. Seriously. They’re bogus. :” :((
I agree it’s looking more so. So when will we CB issue a new guide explaining the national and user percentile scores students received are incorrect and their published SI percentage table (the p11 one) will be revised?
Was the understanding scores published to schools or only posted online?
I think that for some reason – hmm - the CB is not giving out lots of info on the SIs in the reports going to schools.
https://secure-media.collegeboard.org/digitalServices/pdf/sat/sat-suite-of-assessments-reporting-tool-and-manage-access-tool.pdf (see some info back at post 1030http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19204029/#Comment_19204029)
See slides 23-29 - I don’t see any SI’s on the reports that educators get as shown in the CB presentation - but of course they might be able to see this - not sure.
Can I say some thing different - the cut off for 8 states never cross 224 out of max 240 (old SI, 2014 and back)
I believe some CC posters say we should not use SI to predict, since it is conflicting with %tile
I believe some CC posters say we should not use Total Scores to predict, since it is conflicting with SI
I believe you say - do not use %tile, since it’s bogus, please support with facts or reason
What data should I use to express? I believe you have some to share (please do not use any of these above)
As I mention before, my guess or my estimate is as good as or as bad as others’s.
Please, do not take my estimate personally and seriously.
Can you all see this article:
http://www.ajc.com/news/news/local-education/cobb-students-outperform-state-national-scores-on-/np8K5/
It says: " Cobb’s average reading and writing score was 487 compared with the state average of 452 and national average of 468. Cobb’s average math score was 477 compared with the state average of 448 and the national average of 464. About 6,200 students, 47 percent of Cobb 11th-graders, took the PSAT. Students received an average total score of 1113, exceeding the state and national averages of 1018 and 1009.
Some 11th-grade students take the PSAT to participate in the National Merit Scholarship program, which provides over 8,000 students nationwide with scholarships worth a total of more than $43 million.
Walton High School had the highest total score in the district, 1124. Lassiter’s total score of 1064 was second highest in the district. Three other schools, Kennesaw Mountain, Pope, and Wheeler, also had total scores higher than 1000."
http://www.cobbk12.org/news/2016/PSAT2015.pdf – says the mean scores at Walton are 1453 (so how could highest total score be 1124?) Do they mean all the students at Walton scored above 1124? How do you all read the info in thearticle & compare/contrast it to the chart issued by Cobb?
@CA1543 I believe you have been looking at the 10th grade table for Walton:
Walton 10th grade: 1124 TS
Walton 11th grade: 1207 TS
Walton 11th grade - 100 highest scorers’ mean: 1453
Also note that nearly three times as many 10th graders took the PSAT in Georgia than 11th graders.
will come back
@thshadow What does your analysis say if you let Walton “run wild” with NMSF? Maybe they had the “secret sauce” to know how to study. Actually, I do think that was part of the battle.
I’m NOT saying they had an inside track. Students who attended our summer session sponsored by the district said it was a lot of vocabulary, so I think they were going based off of prior years’ tests.
I just got curious about Walton and peeked a bit around their website: http://www.waltonhigh.org/
This seems to be an extremely high performing charter high school with a foundation that helps to guarantee smaller class sizes and grants for teachers. They also have a Summer AP Academy and probably some test prep. Their graduation rate is sky-high and so is their percentage of students going on to 4-year-colleges (about 93 percent - see www.greatschools.org). Their state testing results are off the charts but not their ACT averages. Very interesting read … Maybe the 11th grade PSAT for everyone is funded by the Foundation?
Also see here: http://waltonhigh.org/files/filesystem/Profile%20redo%202015-2016.pdf
Their gifted population is 41 percent, their free and reduced lunch rat at %5.
@websensation please refer to this link for St. John’s stats. 38 NMSF’s out of 141 seniors - 27%. Where did the 600 students come from? Total students? I was referring to the ratio of nmsf/test takers…an impressive ratio.
TAMS has similar ratio.
http://www.houstonschoolsurvey.com/national-merit-scholars.html#.VqElUxGDDHh
@TallyMom2017 – I apologize but not really following - I do understand the mean for Walton 11th grade was 1453 - WOW! But I don’t follow the statement in the article from AJC.com the that says “Walton High School had the highest total score in the district, 1124” - so maybe they are looking at the 10th grade scores - Table 1.
No. Tested Partic. Ave/Mean ERW M
Cobb 3,223 47% 1113 562 551
Georgia 30,970 28% 1018 512 505
National
Tested 1,724,416 51% 1009 507 502
Some of the Cobb schools did very well as well know. GA as a whole did a little better than the national average. I understand the NY average is 968 - lower than the national average but perhaps there are more lower performing schools? For 2016 NMSFs the GA cut off was 218 & NY’s was 219, I wonder what the NY average score was last year? Same exercise could be relevant for Texas, PA, Washington, & CT - somewhat similar range of cut offs. http://www.fairtest.org/sites/default/files/NationalMeritSemifinalist2016-scores.pdf
@CA1543 I think it is a journalistic error. The author of the article looked for that one number in the wrong table.
Also, while the data from Cobb gives our statisticians here great insight into how many 10th graders and how many 11th graders took the PSAT in 2015, we cannot take Walton as a representative example. It is a very high-performing college prep school for the gifted population of Cobb County. Look at their SIP on their website and at their AP results in their AP Bulletin. This is not a normal school and I think their number of last year’s NMSF is even low for what the school preps for.