National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

How about Texas with a 197 for National Hispanic Scholar?

Ok, i am new to this
but have been scouring the boards. My DD got a 217 in CA. If I just do simple math like last year it was a 223 (the cutoff in CA) out of 240 for NMS semi-finalist, then why wouldn’t I take that percentage and multiply it against 228 (the new total) and get a 212 for the cut off
or something around there??? Why are people thinking it would be near 220??? thanks in advance.

Ok, I am very confused. Looking at my daughter’s score report her selection index is 213, which is right at the cut off in our state last year. But, comparing her PSAT score to the concordance table yields a score of 208. Are those two numbers reporting different things?

@Shiryc 224 is easily semi finalist, Even in NJ.

@Ohiodad51 Cocordence tables were made before the PSAT was scored and are not necessarily accurate.

@PremiumSalt Asterisk only indicates you’re not a junior eligible for national merit scholar.

I don’t understand how a score from this year could be translated into a lower score using the concordance tables. It just doesn’t make sense to me. :-?

The PDF metadata in the concordance table document says that it was originally created on 12/14/2015 and last modified on 1/4/2016. (Though last modified could include “saved to a different filename”.)

@gusmahler, 220 isn’t “safe” in MA. My son got that in 2013 and didn’t make the cut-off for our state. I don’t think our cut-off has been below 221 in years.

I already posted this in the main thread, but this may be a better place to post it.

Ok, please excuse that this may be long and I’ll be using bullet points; it’s been a long day, but hear me out here.

  1. On the Selection Index page of the score reports (online version) it says they will review about 1.5 million SIs. 1% of 1.5m is 15,000. This means that more than 1% of test takers will score within the 16,000 finalists.
  2. When I convert my scores using the concordance tables, I get a score nowhere near the top 1% (206 out of 240). However, I scored a 1420 (211si) which puts me within the top 1% by about 30 points composite (1390s have reported being in the 99th). Others have already detailed problems with these tables, so it's safe to say we shouldn't put much trust in the charts.
  3. If I convert by using my percentiles (99% in math and verbal) to the percentiles on the old tests (meaning that I took my 99th percentile in both math and verbal and converted to what a 99th percentile would have been on the old test it converts to a 222 out of 240 (and that is using the lowest possible scores to qualify as the top 1%). So, is it possible that converting your scores this method provides a more accurate idea on how this converts to the old tests?

Any feedback/criticism is welcome, I just haven’t seen this method tried yet and I thought it provides and interesting view. Hopefully this doesn’t come off as the ramblings of a lunatic.

Will 206 be enough for commendation?

@greeneggsandsam9 depends on the percentile. If that is like 97th or 98th percentile you’re probably good to go. Maybe 96. Commendation doesn’t depend on your state.

W=CR=M=36. 1440 total. 720 each section. CB gave 216SI. Can that make semifinalist cutoff inTX?

Reading/Writing = 700 (35 and 35)
Math = 750 (37.5)
SI = 215
99th percentile
Any guesses on chances for semifinalist in NY?

Oy, I guess I’m one of those people. I got a 220 in CA, so just to clarify, if 220 is the “cutoff” score, will people with 220’s qualify? Or be the last score to be denied?

@masond123 When it says cutoff score will be so and so score, it includes the score given. In your instance, 220 is the cutoff score, meaning 220 and over “cut off” or “carved out”.

@Massmomm while 221 was the cutoff last year, that was out of 240. It’s out of 228 this year. 220 should be safe in almost every state.

I wonder when a private company or organization will come out with a persuasive table of cutoff scores?

I went into this test getting a 1510 on the practice test and ended up getting a 1410 with an SI of 210. Prepscholar predicts 203 for Illinois, yet it seems too low. Do you guys think I would be semi in Illinois? I know I’ll probably be just above or just under.

will 227 be enough for TX? Worried that cutoff will be a perfect 228