National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

@srk2017 thank you for the update. I think bc I saw a post that you said or someone said you said (can’t remember) that there are a few that you know at your son’s school that scored north of 220 so I just roughed it…but now I can use your post #1119 to update my list.

If kids talk about scores at all, (in our school, most don’t and I have only heard the scores of one close friend and “the highest score of the nerdy competitive boys because they were all talking about it”) they will naturally be talking most about the highest scores. I don’t think you can draw any conclusions about score distributions.

There has been talk about the PSAT being easier this year and scores being higher than in the past. Maybe the kids did somewhat better than year than in previous years because they were more prepared for it than in previous years? Juniors usually start testing in spring of their junior year. As a result of the concern over the new SAT, college counselors have been advising students since the end of sophmore year to test early so they can test/ re-test before the old-SAT is not an option. Since kids were preparing for the Nov and Dec SAT and ACT test dates they would be more prepared than juniors of previous years. Many different factors at play not just the new SI range.

@SLparent - GA, TS 1490, SI 222.

BTW, based on the three top schools in Cobb County, GA, I believe GA’s NMSF cutoff will be 220 or higher.

@Lea111 - “GA daughter’s SI 226… GA daughter’s friend’s SI (confirmed) between 224 and 226 (only know that it’s a 1500 TS)”

Congrats to your daughter! I am from GA, too. I am very curious which school your daughter goes to.

Subject: What would CB use to calculate cut off for NMF – Total Score, Percentile or SI?

From link: https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/2015-psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores.pdf

Note 1: From page 3/32 under
How is the PSAT/NMSQT scored?
“Next, the raw score is converted to a scaled score of 160 to 760”
**** “160 to 760” implies Total Score

Note 2: From page 3/32 under
How can I use the student score report?
“……The student score report is designed to both clearly summarize the student’s current achievement levels.”
****please note the words “scores” and “current ”.

Note 3: From page 5/32 under
PSAT/NMSQT total scores
“…………….The percentiles accompanying students’ scores have been derived from a research study.”
**** percentiles accompany scores (implies Total score)

Note 4: SI was mentioned LAST (after TS and Percentile) in page 11

From the above notes, we can see that CB uses the Total Scores first, and that scores are current. That mean data from CB are current and real

CB would see how many test takers in each score slot level of 1520, 1500, 1480 and etc. After that, they figure the percentiles for each slot.

Historical and traditional (research study of CB) percentile for the lowest 99+%tile is usually from 99.52 to 99.54 (based on SAT data tables from previous years). I would say 99.54 define the cut off. In past years of NMF, we came close to 99.54 (go with SI 224 of 240), but never at 99.54

My gut feeling is in order to determine the cut off, CB will use TS and %tile. If there is something conflicting at the middle, then they use SI. That way CB would have more leeway to decide NMF (the rest of the process described by suzyQ7 – no need to repeat)

Update on SI’s score list

luvmy3girls 220 1470 AL
chewy7083 217 AL
3dixieboys 209 AL

arizona 223 1500 AZ
tanyat23 223 1490 AZ
zeeke007 218 1460 AZ
mom3eps 216 AZ
phoenixmomof2 212 AZ
zeeke007 1490 AZ

srk2017 228 CA
chocaddict 226 CA
nightlark 226 1510 CA
sdhotmama 226 CA
srk2017 226 CA
worryhurry411 226 CA
hidude45454 225 CA
calmomofcats 224 CA
cybexx 224 1500 CA
lovethebard 224 CA
srk2017 222 CA
srk2017 222 CA
stresstasticlife 222 CA
appgodxoxo 221 1470 CA
picola 221 CA
LAD2266 220 CA
masond123 220 CA
replyback 220 CA
srk2017 220 CA
srk2017 220 CA
srk2017 220 1480 CA
alexcheng10 219 CA
leafseadragon 219 1460 CA
fisik 218 CA
ambitionsquare 217 CA
dsl411 217 CA
hcmom65 217 CA
juicymango 217 CA
livingproof 217 CA
bdragon 216 CA
confusedhs213 215 CA
tikopiarock28 212 CA
chrispychop 210 CA
mangomadness 206 CA
replyback ? 1480 CA
replyback ? 1490 CA

ctstrider 225 CT
cglynn 223 CT
chilkitty 223 1490 CT
theamazing77 213 1440 CT
blue1artic 203 1380 CT

aptrail 225 DC
candjsdad ? 1490 DC

tableforsix 225 FL
doraemon33004 223 1490 FL
mitrak 222 FL
samgallahan 218 1460 FL
2blessed2b 216 1430 FL
delilahhxc 216 FL
long2181998 216 FL
atr123 215 1440 FL
canadant 215 FL
calchong 212 FL

lea111 224-226 1500 GA
lea111 226 GA
stingray2000 225 GA
childishambino 218 GA
raiderdor 218 GA
yakisoba 216 1450 GA
gabaseballmom 212 GA

futuremmachamp 218 IA
kyrieirving2 211 1380 IA
franklin20 207 IA

jake071999 224 1500 IL
daven 223 1490 IL
asianfang 222 IL
ivysaurusrex 222 IL
dotexe 218 IL
WGSK88 218 IL
glassflowers 216 IL
ican’tsleep 214 IL
destin4harvard 210 IL
jcdeiskating 210 IL

kikidee9 216 IN

andre 211 1430 KS
jjutgen15 211 1420 KS
datahead 1480 KS

dwilliam 217 1460 KY
vandyalum93 214 KY
mompop 212 1410 KY

sportsman88 215 LA

mlp139 228 MA
bluekou23 222 1480 MA
walnuthill 222 1480 MA
tarantiny 221 1470 MA
tigraci 221 MA
flyingoat 220 MA
massmom 220 MA
eminem99 200 MA

ackack 222 MD
burstlimit 222 MD
aron 217 1450 MD
clarebeatrice 206 MD
greeneggsandsam9 206 MD

fun1234 222 ME

celica 223 MI
marccoreusi 208 1400 MI
profdad2021 204 1380 MI

mamelot(for friend) 226 MN
mnpapa29 222 1480 MN
mamelot 220 MN
laikadoodles 218 1470 MN
mraustere 215 1440 MN

boglebuff 217 1440 MO
kcedition 211 MO
123field 210 MO

earlvandorn 211 1410 MS
earlvandorn (for son’s friend) 207 MS
liveonlife 205 MS

paveyourpath 223 NC
racmpc 220 1450 NC
disshar 218 NC
payn4ward 199 NC

ananmatisse 209 1390 ND

drewhamahill 208 NE

suzyq7 221 1480 New England Boarding school

crusoemon 1440 NH

hades321 225 1500 NJ
momnjof2 224 1500 NJ
shiryc 224 NJ
fambrughini 221 NJ
chembiodad 219 1440 NJ
cbow17 212 NJ
ro2400 211 NJ
realtwinkie 208 NJ

rustroll 217 NV

trig2017 221 NY
CA1543 218 1470 NY
mcw2017 215 NY
liibigidiot 213 1430 NY
zaarp 213 NY
starjoy8 195 1260 NY
mdcmom 194 NY

aaronuhs 225 OH
flashk 223 1490 OH
enforece88 220 1470 OH
garyasho2 220 1480 OH
milfordeagles 219 1470 OH
sberry26 218 1440 OH
ohiodad51 213 OH

evan99 213 OK

studious99 222 OR
danc3rmrm 218 OR

kjflhd 228 PA
engineur 215 PA
classof2017 206 PA

gghteah 204 RI

irishtwins 206 1340 SC

dakotadelsuf13 206 SD

likestowrite 222 TN
smilingalong 220 TN
higheredrocks 215 TN
isalck32 211 TN
mkumar17 210 1420 TN

curlypie99 ? 1490 TX
maksbow 227 TX
toxichash 226 1510 TX
cardinalcyn 223 TX
sb2017 223 TX
micgeaux 221 TX
tgirlfriend 221 TX
itsgettingreal2017 219 1470 TX
sammieb 216 TX
sciencenerd2017 216 1440 TX
micgeaux 215 1440 TX
eljefe123 214 TX
ross 213 1420 TX
ctaylors6 212 TX
slparent 212 1430 TX
svoll123 211 TX
tayemach 197 TX

slaudsmom 220 1480 UT

novadad99 221 VA
thinmints 220 1470 VA
jrkick64 215 VA

waldeizhere 225 1500 WA

picuberoot 222 1490 WV
oechols 201 1300 WV

eragon314 226

lovesmath 226

bobbbb 225 1500

collegefreak 225

footsondaughter 225

sincerelove 224

ketchup 223 1480

jjundy 221

merething 221

ananyadoodles 220

timenchanter 220

mtrosemom 219

cgsarat71 218 1470

knowledgeless 218

mtrosemom 218

perch1024 218

chew7083 217

wvuhopeful 216

pnwfam 214

stlmo62 213

amyandscott 211

mathyone 211 1420

joewellen 210 1430

nwmom2boys 210

phudou193 210 1370

pannaga 209

pannaga 208

smileydinosaur 205

buffalo 203

szgardengirl 200

js1029 198

nillupa 192

mphiltx 189

hopeforthebest 1200

@paveyourpath, that would be a good point except that most kids don’t have college counselors who are strategizing these things. I doubt more than a handful of families at our school are even aware the SAT is changing–no one I’ve mentioned it to had heard about it. Few of them prep anyway.

Thanks @SLparent! Great list!

DS in FL: 222 - 1490

Hope it’s enough!

@SLparent, I’m on your list but I haven’t reported scores.

Also need to add from post #1168: louisvilleky 211 1410 KY

@mathyone I think SLparent took your info from a response to Jay12321, attributing the score to you in error. But then again, maybe I’m wrong. :slight_smile:

Not to mention that someone whose child has a SI of, say, 187 isn’t going to be on this thread, because it’s a non-issue for them.

@3boystogo you are right about mathyone’s comment. I must have done that bc it’s VERY difficult to sort thru all these messages & pick out scores and associate with names… doing the best I can…the list is not perfect like I said but should give people a feel for scores by state. I will delete mathyone’s score…it didn’t even have a state associated with the score anyway.

@SLparent It is associated with IL. (Jay12321) :slight_smile:

@dfbdfb Right on! the list can be used or looked at by whoever wants to look at! If it’s not of your use, don’t use it! I wish someone else put together a list for me to look at, but since there is none, I took the initiative! Since concordance tables, SI percentiles are no use to me, I figure the list gives me REAL data from real test takers…not research sample, not bogus or inflated percentiles.

Thanks for all you’ve done here, SLparent. It would be fun to compile everyone’s guesses about cutoffs as well, but I suspect none of us has the patience or motivation to do that. Here are my unscientific guesses: Commended=205 and highest state=224.

@dallaspiano Really? You’ve been reading this thread for days and are still questioning how they determine NMS winners?? College board does NOT determine semi finalists for National Merit scholarship corporation. They college board only administers a test (PSAT) and scores it. NMS uses the selection index and determines winners, in the way I described in my other post. Read the PSAT NMS guide on the NMS site. There is no doubt or question on this.

For the Commended student the NM booklet is clear - says Selection Index. For the SF’s it says: 16,000 Semifinalists. “In early September 2016, nearly a third of the 50,000 high scorers will be notified that they have qualified as Semifinalists. Semifinalists are the highest-scoring entrants in each state. NMSC will notify them through their schools and provide scholarship application materials explaining requirements to advance in the competition for National Merit Scholarships to be offered in 2017.” http://www.nationalmerit.org/student_guide.pdf

The NM website says “The 2014 PSAT/NMSQT served as an initial screen of more
than 1.5 million entrants to the 2016 National Merit Scholarship Program. The Selection Index scores of students who met program participation requirements were used to designate a pool of about 16,000 Semifinalists on a state allocation basis. Semifinalists are the highest scorers in each of the 50 states and represent less than one percent of each state’s high school seniors. Although Semifinalist qualifying scores vary from one state to another, the scores of all Semifinalists are extremely high.”

“The website also says: http://www.nationalmerit.org/entering.php#scores
PSAT Scores are sent to NMSC. The Selection Index scores of students who meet entry requirements are used to designate high scorers to receive recognition. NMSC identifies Semifinalists and sends scholarship application materials to them through their high schools.”

I think there is a post in the thread about 2 students from the same state (was it Texas?) with the same SI & one made SF and one did not. Since states get limited allocations, I do wonder what if there is a clump of SI’s such that it would go over the allocation to award them all but be under if the whole group were eliminated. Someone speculated I think about a state getting part of another’s allocation - not sure if real evidence of that has been found. Since the reported PSAT SIs can’t change for students after the fact, it will be interesting to see in September if there are reports of the same SIs in a state being treated differently, or if state numbers vary a lot from the past numbers such that it might be a case of “borrowing” from other’s allocations. NY went down from 1012 to 968 SFs in a year - could be population change of course.

@suzyQ7, my post was written not for myself or for yourself personally. I probably know about the NMF process as much as you do. It’s for many posters may have doubts or hear conflicted stories about TS, %tiles, SI.

You are a frequent poster (just like myself). You probably see some keep asking or keep posting the same issues or questions (may be for some unknown reason, unsure answers, unseen previous posts, just coming across or etc…)
Please, ignore if I do

I follow your posts and you do have questions and answers about the same thing - NMF cutoff process. And I do not say a word

As a CC poster, you should not be unhappy if I do not agree with your opinions in some issues. I and you are not CB official. Right now even CB does not have final say yet

Final note, you wrote “Really? You’ve been reading this thread for days and are still questioning”.

I do not like your tone. You are not my mother. In this thread, I am equal as much as you are or others. Please respect me as a person even I am an junior.