Some estimated score percentiles are here: http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19215449/#Comment_19215449
From @addgap
" 220 – 0.31%
217 – 0.48%
211 – 1.05%
206 – 2.05%
203 – 2.94%
200 – 3.93%
…
Again, this is just my individual prediction, not any official one. Remember 220 or above is 0.31% (=.0031x 1.7m = about 5200) still a lot nationally. I guess that the cutoff for commended would be around 203-204 because .0294x1.7 million is about 50,000"
@srk2017…last year CA SI cutoff was 223…I would think it would be slightly lower since it is out of 228 rather than 240. Everyone is saying this PSAT test is easier. I think it is easier for some and harder for others. If you are good in math and not so much in reading and writing then it maybe harder. Does that make any sense? I think they may have used some trickery on the students changing it up a bit. I know they have used trickery on us that are trying to figure out what the NMSF cutoff will be. Just a guess…
Thanks for the information on scores at your son’s high school in California. You mentioned that you believe that cutoff might be close to 220 . . . how many students from your son’s school typically make the cut for NM?
I have already answered about previous years NMSFs @ my S’s school which is around 8-12. I think past years kids scores were low due to English/Reading but this year those scores improved. May be because it is an IB school and they spend lot of time on evidence based reading and writing. People in other thread already figured out the school name and NMSF counts for previous years 
So the percentile breakdown is based on statistics theory not based on actual data?
Statistical investigation is part of an information gathering and learning process which is undertaken to seek meaning from and to learn more about observed phenomena as well as to inform decisions and actions
I have looked at several states and convinced myself that the states with the highest PSAT score means are not necessarily the states with the highest cut offs. So just because Florida’s mean score seems to be a lot higher relatively then it had been previous years does not necessarily mean the cut off scores in Florida will necessarily be that much higher. National Merit cut offs are really related to how the top 1% in any given state is scoring and there is really no way to know that until state summary reports are released. However, I am convinced that the percentiles on the PSAT Understanding Scores 2015 are wildly off.
@dallaspiano - I am not saying statistical investigation is bad. Just curious to know how you got the breakdown and also it will give highly probable answer but not 100% reliable. Anyway, I enjoy your posts
Nothing is 100% reliable. I agree with you, @srk2017
My dd is at a public HS in FL. The last several years the entire Freshman and Sophomore classes took the PSAT and only those Juniors who wanted to, which was only a few. This year, the whole Junior class took it as well as the Fresh and Soph. My dd went from 167 as a Freshman, 180 last year and a 210 this year. All without studying. The school does NOT provide any prep. I wish she had reviewed math and she would’ve scored higher. She is in AP Calc and has forgotten a lot of the older math. Which she realized after starting to study for the upcoming ACT and SAT. My older daughter was a NMF in 2015, one of two at her school that year. Our school does not consistently have NMSF though we do get some commended and the occasional NMSF. I am not going to ask my GC for score data because he is swamped with caring for so many students at our large school.
On a side note, for those who do meet the NMSF cut offs and are from schools which don’t consistently have NMSF stay on top of it with your GC and Principal. They have to do their part and probably are not knowledgeable in the steps. We had a new principal for my older daughter and thankful I knew enough to ask the GC for help in meeting the deadlines. He kept checking with the principal to make sure everything was done in time. Don’t just expect the school to get it done.
@AJ2017 I agree with you about high means doesn’t mean high cut-off. Last year MN had the same cut-off as FL but a much higher mean for the juniors: R 51.8, M 54.4 and W 49.4 (155.6 total/SI). There are several reasons for this: 1) PSAT isn’t a required test so a much higher percentage is trying for NM; 2) ACT is much more popular than SAT so not a lot of kids take the PSAT; 3) the student demographics are skewed more to over-performing than under-performing groups.
@Mom2TwoDDs - I could have written your exact words but for my child’s scores. I think Florida made the PSAT mandatory for Sophomores and it is paid by the state. If school districts decide to add freshmen or juniors, it is up to them to make it mandatory, too. Our school has no room for testing additional students beyond the 550 sophomores. About 12 freshmen and 12 juniors (at most double that) took the PSAT in 2015. Of the juniors, my child has the highest score with an SI 217. Usually the school has 4 - 5 semifinalists but maybe fewer this year, if the cut-off goes up from 214?
I agree that in large FL public schools the parent has to be the child’s best advocate. Our guidance counselors have over 500 students each; alphabetized of course, so not all are seniors.
@TallyMom2017 If your school normally gets 4 to 5 semifinalist, and 217 is the highest SI in your school in FL, that means the cutoff is lower than 217 most probably. The cutoff for CA is 219 and for FL is 215 per testmaster.
@AJ2017, may I comment on your statement, “the percentiles on the PSAT Understanding Scores 2015 are wildly off.”
You may be right of course about the SI% table. However, I can’t reach that conclusion yet, for 1 main reason. Apparently, the reason to think the SI% table is incorrect is too assume the 99+ is too lenient and should only encompass higher scores. The problem I have with that reasoning, is that if so many students had high scores, CB would have made the scoring curve much more “unforgiving”. If fact, we do see that with respect to the Writing curve - a tough curve. Yet, the Math curve and the Reading (to a lesser degree) curve was much more lenient.
Why make the Writing curve tough and Reading/Math curve more lenient? Probably because too many students were scoring high in Writing and not as many high scorers in Reading/Math. CB can tweek the scoring curves to arrive at the numbers they want. Basically, they can make the SI % tables be “correct” by modifying the curve.
I also discount the analysis that the 2015 PSAT test was “too easy” and thus scores must be high. An easy test should mean tougher curves. In fact, that is how CB evens out the tests. That is why the 10/14 and 10/28 tests have different curves - too make them equal in difficulty.
I’ve been wondering why did CB even do the “research studies”. Why not just use the actual data from the 2015 PSAT. One possible explanation is to arrive at a “target”. Meaning their research establishes the percentiles and then the curves are set to meet the target. Just a hunch.
I wouldn’t discount those SI % tables yet…
Beautiful analysis
The reason I think they are off is because the average score for the Florida test score mean would be around a 161 given that the total score is 1075. This is about at the 70th percentile. I know that the SI can vary depending on the english/math breakdown but mid score from the possible combinations would be around 161, right? I think it doesn’t make sense that the mean SI of the large state of Florida would be in the 70th percentile. Of course, I could be thinking about this in the wrong way as I am posting and then doing something else. You know how that is. But tell me what is wrong in my thinking.
Edit - nevermind
Sorry, one more point on the matter. When the (1 and only) PSAT practice test was released, as I recall, they didn’t release the scoring curve until later. There was a gap between the release of the test with right/wrong answers and the curve. Someone can correct me on this point if I’m remembering wrong.
For that practice PSAT, how to set the “curve”? It was the first PSAT test with the exception of their research/field testing. A reasonable guess is CB came up with the curve using their research study. Meaning set the curve to arrive at the results of their study.
Another hunch. Full of hunches today.
@Speedy2019 I agree that it is too early to count out the SI % tables since CB gave them to the public to ponder. However, from what I can see, they don’t agree with the concordance tables. This is only speculation, but I have a speculation.
1)Why would the CB give out SI% charts that inflate the percentiles? One possible answer to that is inflated percentiles may encourage many students to take the March SAT. Since they say that the percentiles are derived from a previous research study, they can technically get away with offering percentiles that don’t match the actual test results.
2)Why would the CB give out concordance charts that seem to compress the upper range of scores? One possible answer is that the older, less compressed version of the PSAT caused PR problems for the NM corporation. Because individual states could award NMSF that had 20 full point score difference, it caused frustration. If the top scores are compressed, as the concordance tables seem to indicate, then the NMSF difference of score might go down to just 10 points between states. This might be better PR for the NM corp, which might be better PR for taking the PSAT.
I have no beef at all against CB, except that I was frustrated with the PSAT score delay. However, my daughter has many friends who sit on the bubble of the various predictions of NMSF cut off. So, I have been thinking about reasons why the two tables seem to differ.