<p>squemily, does the packet actually say the cutoff score? i don't believe it does...</p>
<p>Checked my D's packet. No mention of cut off score in letter or elsewhere for PA.</p>
<p>The packet my S got last year as a NMSF didn't mention any cut-off score either.</p>
<p>to: jazzyrhythms & themutt22</p>
<p>Post #354 has links to prior year Semifinalist minimums -- WA state was 216/216/214/213/212 for '06/'05/'04/'01/'99. Of the three other states that were 216 last year (in the 2006 Program), this year's minimums (the 2007 Program) are: TN +1, IL +2, and NC -1. This would indicate that your chances are probably pretty good, though they're not guaranteed.</p>
<p>Another way to look at it is that for the 53 NMSC states/regions (for non-boarding students), we have relevant data for you (i.e. we think we know if they're up more than 2 from last year) on 26. Of those, two (NY and HI) are up more than 2, so using that instead, you could estimate your chances based only on what's been posted so far and assuming a normal distribution etc. etc. etc. at 92.3% (24 out of 26). Good luck!</p>
<p>AAh, damn Massachusetts!</p>
<p>aznxboy - it's not part of the actual paperwork, but it's stapled to it. Maybe it's something that they send to the school and the school doesn't usually give it to the students? (My school also gave me a copy of the letter to the principal...)</p>
<p>I don't know how i'm going to wait till wednesday!!!:(</p>
<p>Only three days until press release Wednesday. As always, the same caveats:
1) SF isn't criticial to admissions. Commended is pretty darn good, and while SF/not SF impacts NMSC scholarship $, only a small fraction of all scholarship $ come from NMSC. Except for a few silly schools obsessive about getting their SF numbers up (which might make you question their thinking about things, by the way), SF/not SF isn't likely to affect college admissions at all -- they prefer to use SATs, which are more detailed, more accurate, and more recent.
2) Scores are only a part of the package you offer colleges. If your PSATs were high enough to be worried about making SF, they're not likely to be much of an issue. Worry about your grades, your volunteer activities, your essay, your sports, your summer experiences, your interview, and your "hook".
2) This table is only as good as the incoming posts. For example, all we have on AZ is a single post from someone saying, in that post's entirety, "AZ cutoff is 214.". Maybe it is, but maybe it isn't. (AZSun, no disrespect intended, just using it as an example.) </p>
<p>No news today. Post references have been pruned to make them a little easier to use. "X" after a post # means it was subsequently indicated to be wrong. Summary stats will follow in a separate post in a little while.
. . . . minimum . . change from
. . .<a href="in%20blue">color=blue</a> is:[/color] . .last year . . . . relevant post(s)
AL . . . . 212 . . . no change . . . 231, 263, 286, 336
AZ . . . . 214 . . . +2 . . . . . . . . 321
AR . . . . 206 . . . no change . . . 319, 326
CA . . . . 219 . . . +2 . . . . . . . . 347X,376,380,398,419X,421X,425X,432,511,533
CT . 221-223 . . . +2? . . . . . . . .491
FL . . . . 215 . . . no change . . . .274, 277, 324
GA . . . .218 . . . .no change. . . .370X, 497
HI . . . . 218 . . . +4 (-2 last yr) .271
IL . . . . .218 . . . +2 . . . . . . . . 309, 312, 445, 522
KS . . . . 213 . . . -2 . . . . . . . . .368, 369, 372, 428
KY . . . . 212 . . . no change . . . 438
MD . . . .223 . . . +1 . . . . . . . . .403, 418, 420, 423, 510
MA . . . .224 . . . +2 . . . . . . . . .444
MI . . . . 211 . . . no change . . . 411X, 473, 475. 476, 480, 482
MN .214-215 . . .+1? . . . . . . . . 488
MS . . . . 204 . . . no change . . .375<br>
MO . . . .214 . . . +1 . . . . . . . . .234
NV . 208-214 . . . +? . . . . . . . . 373, 489
NJ . . . . .223 . . . +1 . . . . . . . . 485, 514, 527
NY . . . . 221 . . . +3 . . . . . . . . 333, 338, 340, 344, 487
NC . . . . 215 . . . -1 . . . . . . . . 506
OH . . . . 215 . . . no change . . .247, 252
PA . . . . 217 . . . .+2 . . . . . . . .452, 477, 478, 509, 524
SC . . <=214 . . . +2? . . . . . . . .272 says '06 was 215 vs. 212 elsewhere
TN . . . . 217 . . . +1 . . . . . . . . 303, 405
TX . . . . 217 . . . no change . . . 227, 386, 387, 399, 454
VA . . . . 220 . . . no change . . . 335</p>
<p>The prior post (#548) shows our current knowledge of the 2007 National Merit Program minimums for Semifinalist status (for seniors graduating in 2007). Minimums for the 2006 Program (last year's) are available at post #9 of <a href="http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/showthread.php?t=93947%5B/url%5D">http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/showthread.php?t=93947</a> (N.B. Delaware's 2005 population numbers are wrong in this post.)</p>
<p>A few statistics from the 2007 Program so far:
-> We seem to have determined the SF minimum ("cutoff") for 23 states, with narrow ranges for 4 others.
-> Of the 23 we have, the highest cutoff is MA at 224, w/ NJ & MD at 223. The lowest are MS at 204 and AR at 206.
-> 11 of 23 <a href="48%">color=blue</a> are up[/color]: biggest are HI +4, NY +3. 10 of 23 <a href="43%">color=blue</a> are staying where they are[/color]. 2 of 23 <a href="9%">color=blue</a> are down[/color]: NC -1, KS -2
-> Average change either way 2006 to 2007: +1.0 (absolute value of change). Average net change: +0.8 (netting ups with downs).
-> Unlike prior years, a good number of the biggest movers are big states, i.e. of the seven moving up 2 or more four (CA, NY, PA, IL) are big.
See post #202 for similar statistics from the 2006 Program a year ago.</p>
<p>Over time, the trend has been an increase in state cutoffs. Compare to the 2001 cutoffs at:
<a href="http://www.usatoday.com/news/education/2004-02-04-national-merit-scholars_x.htm%5B/url%5D">http://www.usatoday.com/news/education/2004-02-04-national-merit-scholars_x.htm</a>
Between the 2001 and 2007 Programs, every state we have so far for 2007 went up except HI, which was the same in both years (with a lot of movement in between). (HI is apparently very volatile; ~50% of SFs come from a single school.) The overall increase is frustrating, but explained by score inflation, requiring higher cutoffs to hold SFs to 1.2% of the people taking the PSAT. (Commendeds are about 4% -- the Commended cutoff (post #165) rose again this year (2004 Program 201, 2006 Program 202, 2007 Program 203).</p>
<p>N.B. For people who commute to school from one state to another, the relevant state cutoff is the state of the school, not the state of the home.</p>
<p>Until Wednesday...</p>
<p>RLVJ:</p>
<p>Thank you very much for your attention to detail and willingness to take the time to provide updates.</p>
<p>aznxboy1228-You've got a point there...lol. My sister told me the cutoff score wasn't on the packet either when she got it, so I guess you're not lying for the first time when dealing with this kind of stuff...jk</p>
<p>I live in Florida, and I know I'll only get commended with my 210 but I haven't gotten anything or been notified yet. have most people been?</p>
<p>I haven't either but don't worry about it because the official date for the release of forms is the 13th. That doesn't mean you can't get them before but that's when the NMSC says you should get them by.</p>
<p>Man, its kinda hard to write this essay without making it seem like you're bragging.</p>
<p>Madmax91, you mention the essay. I know I made the cut in Maryland with my 223, but my school hasn't notified me yet. Can any of you out there that has received your notification packet tell me what is in it. Sounds like there is an essay that I'll need to write. Anything else? And any mention of deadlines for these things? Thanx</p>
<p>Way for NY to go up 3 when I was almost there before with 217. :-/</p>
<p>Neb,
Not that this helps at all, but I think it hurts more to miss the cut by one point than by 4. So maybem, in some twisted way, it'll make you feel better... Sorry...</p>
<p>MarylandHoward: Prepare a draft essay describing your personal characteristics, achievements, goals and ambitions. Explain what sets you apart. All in 500 words. Good luck!</p>
<p>The Ct Cutoff Is 221!!!!!!!</p>
<p>profundity - How do you know the CT cut off</p>