National merit cutoffs for HS class of '16

Test Preparation
1

Does anyone know of some sort of “predicted cutoff” for NM semifinalists who will be notified in September? Does anyone know, for instance, if some site takes a sample of reported PSAT scores to determine if the curve will move up or down.

I scored a 225 last fall, which is exactly one point above the class of '15 international cutoff of 224, so I’m worried about the possibility of a 2-point rise.

2

Check out this thread:
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/1696275-class-of-2016-nmsf-nmf-qualifying-scores.html#latest

3

@3scoutsmom -Well, that thread is certainly a bit of a read.

I did manage to find this:

http://research.collegeboard.org/programs/psat/data/cb-jr

which shows that the average score on the 2014 PSAT was about a point lower for juniors. Obviously, it’s by no means certain that the same will be true of the very small sample size that US citizens abroad represent, but it’s a good sign.

4

I thought international students were not eligible to compete. Are you referring to a regional boarding school cutoff?

5

@3boystogo -I’m a US citizen living abroad-that’s what I mean by “international.”

6

@NotVerySmart I’ll summarize the thread for you @WRUAustin is very good with numbers and has worked out predictions for almost every state, no state has a prediction as high as 226 so you should be safe;-)

If I understand things correctly, the international cut off is based on the highest cutoff in the states usually New Jersey and DC. When people start posting scores for various states those are the states scores you’ll want to look at.

7

@3scoutsmom Ok, thanks a lot. I’m hoping you’re right.

Just out of interest, where did you read that the international cutoff is tied to the highest cutoff in the US?

Also, I just have to say it: it’s absurd that two kids can have the exact same score, but if one lives in Texas and the other in Alaska then the former might not make it while the latter does. The NM qualifying system is as arbitrary and foolish as the SAT, and I’m glad I’ll never have to deal with any of the College Board’s tests again. rant over

8

I’m not sure where I read it, likely here on CC! But if you look at this chart:
http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/national-merit-scholarship-cutoff-scores-by-state/

You can see that for the past seven years the international cut off has been the exact same as DC which has also been the highest cut off for any state.