<p>I know this seems like an impossibility given last year's record cutoffs, but take a look at the numbers. (I scored a 216 in FL and I was fairly confident with this score but after looking at the percentiles this year I think the cutoffs may surprise a lot of people).
Below are the links to the "Understanding Your PSAT scores" for the last 4 years.</p>
<p>I’m sweating with you buddy. I’ve been looking at data all weekend, and have been all over the map with my understanding and predictions. A 4 points jump would be unbelievably painful for us, as my son only has a 3 point margin from last year. I think the state specific scores that come out in February will be extremely helpful.</p>
<p>The national percentiles that were released with this year’s test results are the juniors who took the test in the previous year. It says this in the score report. The percentiles don’t reflect this year’s test takers, but they do give some insight into last year’s record jumps. Read the sidebar on page 2 of the 2013 report. It’s explained there. Also, if you look at the 2010 report, the percentiles are for that test (2010). I’m not sure why they started using percentiles based on previous years. That was not always the case.</p>
<p>Just looked at your data dn…I see what you are saying. Those cuts though are fairly comparable to the 2010 numbers (class of 2012), right? Wasn’t that also an unusually high year overall? I wouldn’t want to bank on scores going down…at least not overall, but I think there is reasonable reassurance that they won’t tank upward. I’d like to predict that most states currently sitting at their high point will stay within a point in either direction. Part of that may be wishful thinking. I would not count on drops, but I’m really hoping we won’t see more record growth.</p>
<p>Oh…excellent point Luvmygirls. My head is already spinning from the differing test years, report years, “class of” years, etc. I should probably put all this aside until state data comes out in February.</p>
<p>Luvmygirls, I tried to send you a private message, but apparently we need 15 posts each before we can use that feature. I’ll be here for the long haul though in PA with you. The rational side of my brain expects 216-218, with 217 dead center. It looks cautiously good for you, I think. The emotional side though is all over the map.</p>
<p>Have you done any research in the graduation rate data component? I haven’t found anything tangible there yet, and hope there are no surprises.</p>
<p>I don’t totally understand the graduation rate thing! I do, however, see the trend that when scores rise this much, they always drop the following year. Not sure if you’ve seen this:
[PSAT-</a> National Merit Scholarships and Semifinalist State Cutoff Scores](<a href=“http://hubpages.com/hub/National-Merit]PSAT-”>http://hubpages.com/hub/National-Merit)</p>
<p>Ok that makes sense. Guess I should stop worrying so much and read the fine print lol. So the dramatic increase in percentiles does make sense since it reflects the cutoffs for the class of 2014.</p>
<p>Anyone have any idea how to see how hard the 2013 (Class of 2015) PSAT was compared to other years? I’d really like to see the Selection index ranges for 99+, 99, 98, 97 & 96.</p>
<p>That used to be in the Understanding your Score booklet, but the 2012/14 booklet started to use year old data.</p>
<p>I don’t see that data at all in the state reports. Just the rather course breakdown by 5 pt bands for CR, Math and Writing by nation, region and state.</p>
<p>But nothing that shows the breaks between percentages like in the “Understanding your Score…” booklet.</p>
<p>In my state, using the gap between 99 and 99+ and then adjusting for graduation numbers is a fairly reliable predictor. The state data can indicate a move direction, but much harder to quantify, especially if the relative difficulty of the test cannot be compared to previous years.</p>
<p>Every state includes the national mean scores and standard deviations for each subject, but you’re right, the rest isn’t there. You’d have to calculate percentile a from there, and it wouldn’t be for the total. It would also be difficult to go from the 99th to the 99th+. </p>
<p>Is that info on the annual report? My computer couldn’t open it from the link I found. Would love yet more data to devour!</p>
<p>John Galt, would love to have coffee and discuss your thinking! I’ve been playing around with 96th, 99th, and 99th+ percentile cuts, and using those and other PA specific data, I’m determined to get a line of best fit that covers all of the PA data! Stay tuned… But in using the data above, I realized that last year’s commended cut was actually at the 97th percentile, rather than the 96th. Most years show a span of 96th percentiles (one year was 197-200), with commended landing closer to the top of the range, but last year 203 (commended score) was listed as the 97th. What are we to make of that?</p>
<p>Also, does anyone have links to the selection index percentile charts that go back further than the 4 linked above? For what it’s worth, the 5th year back report (2009) uses the sample of the current class (2011), and uses the same numbers given in the 2010 report (now also class of 2011). Boy, those years will drive you nuts in due time. Report year, test year, class of year, data year…</p>
<p>(I still have this fear that scores are just going to steadily climb until the whole program crashes and burns!)</p>
<p>Here’s a thread with Selection Index numbers that go back quite a way. I really would like to somehow discover this year’s data, but I don’t think it is out there.</p>
<p>JohnGalt, would LOVE to have that info too! There seems to be solid predictive value between the 99th+ cuts and PA’s cut. They really hosed us when they stopped using the current year sample data last year.</p>
<p>I looked at the links above, and not all of them are accurate (the links don’t match the year listed). I’m not sure why I’m collecting more data, since it only seems to be good in hindsight.</p>
<p>I thought I went through them twice, I did have to update the last few years since the “Understanding your PSAT Score” started to use year old data. But I thought the early ones were all accurate.</p>
<p>I think I have all the data now, though three of my (test) years are just from info posted elsewhere, without a link back up (2005, 2008 and 2009). </p>
<p>From the link above:</p>
<p>2003 fine
2004 fine
2005 had no actual data
2006 was actually the 2004 report
2007 was good in a later post
2008 was a dead link
2009 was a dead link
2010 was deleted
2011 was actually the 2013 report</p>
<p>I think I FINALLY have a handle on which years use which data! Now…if only we had the percentile cuts for 2013 (which of course are no longer in the 2013 report, as they switched to year old data in 2012).</p>
<p>The 2006/08 link “now” points to a 2004 document. Generic URLs for the CollegeBoard should be viewed as a temporary repository. Likewise for the 2011/13 link. </p>
<p>I don’t have the 2005,2008 or 2009 PDFs either. Anyone willing to share?</p>