<p>Any news from California? My daughter, at 220, is one point above last year’s cutoff, and the rise in the cutoffs is very disheartening…</p>
<p>We’ve moved to another state now, so will probably not get any notification even if she does make it…</p>
<p>I agree with the person that said as more kids practice and take the test, the scores are going to gradually rise. I think more parents(especially in this economy) are seeing the importance of this test and preparing(getting kids tutors/taking study classes) more for it. My older son did not make it, but I will definitely prepare my younger son more; many parents I talk to are just now even learning about the test/scholarship, and the more that talk about it(especially on internet), the more kids will take it and probably do better than in years past.</p>
<p>^^ For AZ, I don’t think that applies. The fraction of kids who score 75-80 were about the same as the last year. If kids do better on the test, you would see the increase there?</p>
<p>Igloo, the fraction who scored 75-80 in AZ in two of the three individual tests was lower and the same in one and it still went up 4 points. It seems to me that the fraction who scored in the 79-80 must have been must much higher. I think the 75-80 is too broad a range to pick up the statistical differences from one year to the next.</p>
<p>It is going to be interesting to see exactly how many states went up by multiple points. We may just be experiencing the anomaly of hearing first from all those that did. It would make sense that many of us are a self-selected group who are on here now because having a kid with a score close to last year’s cut-off made us hyper-vigilant.</p>
<p>^I know. It doesn’t explain an increase in cut-off, especially as much as 4 points. It must be something else. As someone mentioned earlier, decrease in HS grads?</p>
<p>My daughter is a nmsf in WI with a 209. That was the cutoff for last year. I was shocked because I think the averages for the subcomponents in WI went up after last September’s test. I have forgot the details after familiarizing myself with them last fall because I didn’t think she would make it. Has anybody seen any statistics about how many have taken the test in each state in each state? Is it appropriate to say that each state has the same percentage/relative to the number of graduating seniors? Or is the number of enrolled kids in the graduating year that is taking the test? My empathy to those that misse it by an answer or two.</p>
<p>odyssey04- The scores are determined using only the juniors scores. Let’s say a state gets 300 NMSF spots which are determined by the number graduating seniors in that state. The NMSFs are taken from the highest 300 scores in the state. That state’s cut-off score is determined by the lowest score among that 300. </p>
<p>The reason scores vary by state is the number of kids who take the test in a particular state. They are competing only against other kids from their state, so the more test takers the higher the cutoff. The states with the lower test scores have a lower percentage of students who take the PSAT, and are usually in ACT focused states.</p>
<p>For example, Wyoming with one of the lowest cutoff scores has approximately 6200 seniors; only 1472 took the PSAT. Delaware has approximately 10000 seniors; 6393 took the test. Suppose the top 1% are named SF and a 75% graduation rate. Wyoming would have 46 and Delaware 75. To beat the cutoff in Wyoming you only need to score higher than 1426 test takers, but nn Delaware, you need to beat 6318. </p>
<p>I hope this helps.</p>
<p>The method that National Merit uses to determine cutoff scores is completely bogus and unfair, but I’ll forgive them if the VA cutoff comes in at 219 or lower.</p>
<p>I guess this process is a good reminder to kids that most things in life are not fair. It’s a good lesson to learn.</p>
<p>I did notice that in Texas, approx. 20,000 more juniors took the test than last year. That’s a pretty big increase in test takers in one year.</p>
<p>Wow, that’s an enormous increase in Texas, like an 11% increase in one year. I think that solves the mystery of the Texas increase.</p>
<p>Anyone know if Ohio had an increase in test takers?</p>
<p>Arizona also had a huge increase in people taking the test, about a 10% increase, so that probably explains the increase in their score as well.</p>
<p>No, Ohio actually went down by about 800.</p>
<p>But the qualifying score did go up.</p>
<p>In Florida, only one to two percent increase in test takers, but number of students in the 75-80 range, went up alot.</p>
<p>Has anyone heard cutoff scores for SC?</p>
<p>I don’t really have a sense for why Ohio’s number went up so much, unless it has to do with the fact that people are moving out of the state causing their allotment of NMSF to go down.</p>
<p>^ Ohio has consistently been 211, with some 212s and 213s. High was 215 in 2005, more typically 211 for past 10 years.</p>
<p>Is 2005 when they introduced the writing section?</p>
<p>^Not sure, I thought it was later.</p>