I vote for some ‘reality’.
Each level of education builds for the next. He is not using his HS opportunities. How was he in elementary school and middle school? It often is not just getting top grades, it is learning/growing/developing with EC, doing more - reading, music, chess club, etc. Developing the mind. Have an interest in learning towards goals - which should be through every level of education.
Back when DD2 was in 7th/8th grade, she talked about a career field she wanted to go into. Told her she cannot afford her life style/herself on what salary she would make with that degree. Smart gal; excellent math/science. Lots of engineers in the family. She can do her other interests in her free time as hobbies. Her HS also had a semester long course on personal finance; I found out when she brought the workbook home that it was the Dave Ramsey course - which was wonderful for her.
Developed her interest in engineering through HS, found the field she really likes (has had two college internships). On the path for success for sure. Working hard at college but also having fun (was an all state band student on her instrument from very young; plays for college marching band with scholarship/stipend).
This boy is lost in mediocrity and no goals. We know a few top student/college swimmers that actually also are in engineering or STEM major. However they were top students in MS and HS. High stat (GPA and ACT/SAT).
This didn’t happen overnight.
Unfortunately, lads physically and emotionally lag behind gals in MS/HS. Both DDs totally were through puberty and any growth spurts by 9th grade; some lads are still growing in college. Can build up emotional/mental to deal with physical demands of a growing body (needing more sleep, etc).
The earlier the wake up call for this lad, the more he can develop as a student. IMHO, there is a window for being on the student track through UG, with being a very good college student. Some ‘miss’ this opportunity and have to work harder - doing military first, going to local community college, etc.
Just got a recommendation on two books “Building Resilience in Children and Teens” by Kenneth Ginsburg MD, and another book “The Price of Privilege…” by Madeline Levine PhD. Ginsburg’s has a latest edition that you might be interested in, with extra materials (maybe see it at a local bookstore or on line to see if it interests you).
Parents need to really provide the parenting that their S/D need. Not always easy. Also recommend saying lots of times “We love you and want the best for you.”
Also can share - H and my brother both are engineers that didn’t apply themselves well in HS but both had the ‘chops’. Brother took a gap year, went to state engineering program as a junior after getting fr/so year done where his friends were - and it was hard work for him. He knew he was smart enough and struggled through. H was not a classroom guy (from something from early schooling), but had all kind of engineering interests and projects outside of his Jesuit HS (and having the excellent school program probably also saved him) from MS on (and his best friend also graduated from flagship engineering program too and is a successful engineer). In 8th grade, had extra Saturday classes to help the students that were going to the Jesuit HS. H had to take a ‘catch up’ math class between college freshman and sophomore year due to his lower aspirations in HS (he thought he would go into the Navy submarine program after HS) - MIL begged him to try college. He still is best learning on his own - learns new programming languages, project engineering, etc as an ECE. Both H and brother didn’t have stellar college grades, but have both been very successful career engineers.