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Add Carleton College to your list.

^Carleton would be a reach, not a match or safety for this student. No materially better chances there than at Middlebury etc.

She might like Dickinson or American. What are her interests? What drew her to the colleges on her list, other than Naviance stats? If money is not an issue, you have a lot of options.

PS FWIW I do think your guidance counselor is being realistic. If TCNJ is the only true safety and your D hates it, then you need another safety. Like our D four years ago, your D is an overrepresented demographic in elite college admissions (females from NJ with decent but not mindblowing stats). It’s a good idea to spread a wider net. It will work out and she will get into a good place.

I think no matter what schools get added to her list, D needs to approve of them, and feel good attending there. Otherwise applying is a waste. You still obviously need a safety but I’m wondering if OP’s D has even visited TCNJ or if its reputation of being an instate public school is what is drawing her away from it. I know lots of people here in NY who didn’t want to touch SUNY’s or CUNY’s with a 10 foot pole because they are instate publics but many of them were forced to visit one by their parents. Some, not all, ended up applying and even attending. Some students just pay to much attention to how they will be perceived by their peers.

“she is in the top third of applicants” and “Lehigh, she has only a 25% chance of rejection or waitlist. BC is about 50%.”

Dad, You’re basing that on the stats figures alone. But those schools look at more, their admit decisions are holistic. We spend a lot of time on CC discussing the wrench holistic throws in. You have to know the “what else?” that matters to a college. It can swing both ways, an advantage or not.

And Carleton and some of the similar schools mentioned here are considered tough to get into. I’m not crazy about USNews rankings, but for perspective, it’s #8. Macalester, Bates, and Kenyon are top 25, just ahead of Barnard and Scripps.

A 3.7 can be fine- several of us have said this- but adcoms look at the transcript (and the individual ACT scores) when assessing strengths. Plus all the rest of what those colleges can expect in her activities, leadership (not just hs titles,) and writing.

We can throw out school names all day long, but if you aren’t going to share her details, then you need to be looking into more than stats, what really makes one kid compelling, a possible match.

Add to that, it’s mid-October. It’s late to be going scattershot, not having visited these schools, not much time to.

She has good ECs, sports, volunteer work, tutoring, a part-time waitress job. She will have taken 5 AP courses including Calculus. She is also conversational in Spanish.

I understand that intangibles are important but you have to form the list based on objective data points. There is no other way.

I took today off to work on this and the revised list is forthcoming.

BTW for lacs in US News more than half the top 25 are ties and the data is a year old. The inclusion of the service academies messes up the rankings.

My D1 got into her schools despite a score issue. She was not a 4.0. Missing the point puts kids behind the 8-ball. She will have that whole app to fill out.

You think she has good ECs, but this is about more than what’s tops or respected in her high school. She will face a highly competitive pool. We also spend a lot of time on CC defining what great ECs are. She took on responsibilities, reached outside her comfort zone, had some sort of impact- or?

I’m actually encouraging you. I firmly believe that the better the “read” on what a college values and looks for, the better the try at matching your whole picture, the better your application.

If her 3.7 is based on mostly top grades in core classes and those related to her possible major, maybe it’s B’s in gym and some odd elective that brought the gpa down, she is in a different position than when the Bs are in rigor and her interest areas.

What is her weighted GPA?

I know that those selective LACs are a reach for most, but the message could have been delivered a bit more tactfully. That said, I also recommend Dickinson and St. Lawrence and if you’re willing to contemplate Ohio, College of Wooster, OWU, Denison. Possibly Kenyon or Oberlin.

I was curious so I ran the numbers for Vassar. Her test scores are within the middle 50% and close to the mean ACT. Depending on where she is with respect to class rank, it might be an option if she’s in the top 25%

https://admissions.vassar.edu/about/statistics/

@NJSue (females from NJ with decent but not mindblowing stats).
Not arguing with your point, I reluctantly agree with it, but it is kind of crazy that we can talk about a kid who scores in the 97 percentile with an A- avg as ‘decent’
@ScaredNJDad - what is the caliber of your daughter’s high school? If she attends a high school that has a great ranking that will give her a boost. ie; a 3.7 from some schools may be more akin to a 4.0 at others

Wisteria, she goes to an all girls private school. AVG Act of 27 and AVG SAT of 1875. So, high achieving students.

But wisteria, adcoms look at transcripts.

OK so we are removing Haverford, Colby and Wake Forest and adding a few.

Middlebury
Bates
Hamilton
Boston College
Holy Cross
Lehigh
Lafayette
Villanova
Elon
TCNJ
St. Lawrence
St. Michael’s or Siena

And we have visited all. I think this balances the risk better. So we hope for 1 or 2 out of the first 4, Holy Cross - Elon are very high probability and three good safeties.

@ScaredNJDad Wisteria, she goes to an all girls private school. AVG Act of 27 and AVG SAT of 1875. So, high achieving students.

That’s good news/bad news. Good news b/c she overachieves at her high school. Bad news b/c colleges like to keep the balance between private and public school kids at about 50/50 and while the stats from your private high school are good, they are lots of privates out there with stats much higher.
But all in all your daughter is a strong candidate - you should be very proud. Your list is more balanced now and I wish you and her the best of luck. You could take a shot at one of the reaches Bates/Hamilton and apply early to increase your chances. Middlebury may be too much of a reach to have success with an early app

Why was Wake Forest taken off the list if that was one of the schools her GC thought she had a chance at??

Because she was lukewarm on Wake to begin with and Elon lowers the risk and she liked the campus more.

I would take TCNJ off the list and find safeties she actually likes.

Those numbers are not so “high achieving.” They are below-the-line for pretty much any school in the top 50 or so.

Soze, The average SAT score is the 90th percentile for females. Are there schools higher, yes, but they restrict enrollment severely. The AVG for NJ is a bit over 1500.

I think Elon is match, not a safety, but I think she will get in. Siena is a safety- does she like Siena? This updated list seems to be more balanced.

I think TCNJ suffers from having a bad name. They should rename it and it would sound much better! As long as she has two or three safeties she’s willing to attend, it really doesn’t matter what else is on her list.

Mathmom, yes and they should remove Trenton State from the bottom of the pool. The campus is otherwise nice. There is a brand new walking mall on campus now with housing and shops.

Twogirls, the data shows her in the top 20% at Elon. So it is a match/safety.

She does like Siena and St. Michael’s. For students from Catholic schools they are deemed acceptable schools. I think St. Michael’s more due to its exotic location and free skiing at a pretty amazing mountain.

Siena gets a staggering 9,000 applications.

Thank god when we saw all the reach schools we also saw others in the same area.