The new list looks good.
I would be shocked if she didn’t get into Elon Her stats and course rigor are stronger than all of the kids I’ve known who went there. (At least 5 off the top of my head.) If anything, she could be wait listed or something because they think she’s using them as a safety and practice yield protection.
ETA: I do think that the suggestion of UVM is a good one for her. Everyone seems to love the school and love Burlington. I think UVM has the kind of vibe she’d like.
Consolation, on the trip to Middlebury we visited UVM and St. Michael’s. The two are very comparable in terms of admissions. She much preferred St. Michael’s.
@ScaredNJDad, that’s great. FWIW, I think the GC did you a great service by giving an unvarnished opinion of your D’s chances. I hope she gets in to one of her top choices–and clearly she would have no problem doing well at any of them–but if she doesn’t, it will be good to have choices she likes in the spring.
I wish there were more resources directed to college guidance in HS. A nice seminar for parents and students about admissions, criteria, expectations, financial aid, merit aid, ec’s, resources for information, etc. should be given in both Freshman and Sophomore year. It would help to focus students, assist in course selection, allow students and parents to make informed choices and decisions.
@ScaredNJDad Anyone who says ED doesn’t help at LACs is just plain wrong. It does. Moreover, very few URMs apply early to LACs. They don’t need to. Most LACs are rather non-diverse. Those URMs who are interested in them usually apply EA or RD so they can compare fin aid or merit $ packages.
@jonri We have extensive data and the numbers show virtually identical acceptance vs rejection at given GPA and test scores when athletes and legacy are removed.
Why would a highly selective school admit lower qualified students in ED? It is not in there interests. They have no issue filling a class of 500 when they receive over 5,000 plus applications.
People like to think if they get to well first they get a better drink, but the numbers don’t show this.
UVM would be a great safety to add.
Elon is a low match - we can’t quite put it in the safety category due to class balance quirks, but it’s highly unlikely she wouldn’t get in.
You may still be functioning under the “old” reputation of “Trenton State”, before it successfully rebranded itself as TCNJ, a sort of honors college for academically serious kids who don’t want all the sports culture and large-school atmosphere at Rutgers, but have the stats to get in there. It currently rivals Rutgers undergraduate in admission stats.
TCNJ 1828/Rutgers 1815 (so, negligible differece), with 49% in top 10% of class at TCNJ and 39% at Rutgers, 27% at 700+ in Math at Rutgers and 18% at TCNJ (I’m guessing the better engineering students go to Rutgers en masse and skew the results a bit 
) 10% Rutgers for CR 700+, 12% at TCNJ so similar.
At TCNJ, GPA doesn’t matter to admissions as much as course rigor and test scores, which would likely favor a lot of private school kids (just sayin’). They’ve been trying to up the “private quality, public price” image, too.
BUT if your daughter doesn’t like it and you’re full pay, you have lots of choices. Beside St Michael’s, what about Marist, U Scranton (not far from Poconos), Muhlenberg, Loyola Maryland?
St Michael’s being in Burlington (basically) is a terrific choice for a preppy kid who loves to ski, as is St Lawrence, and both are definitely safeties. At UVM she should apply EA and to Honors… and you’re good to go. 
Whether or not ED benefits may be particular to OP’s high school.
Lower qualified? In what respect? It’s not all stats. Even in ED, the kid with a few more B’s may actually be a better match, depending on the college.
I don’t think ED helps the “lower qualified” - those on the lower side of the 50% mark. However, for borderline “match” kids, ie. kids above the average mark but below the 75% threshold, ED is a boost, especially if they’re full pay, because colleges can “lock in” a kid who can do the work, will attend, and can afford to do so without needing financial aid.
In addition to being full pay, which is a HUGE advantage for your daughter (many top colleges meet need but are need aware in admissions), she also has the advantage of being a legacy at one or two different colleges. Is she applying there? It’d be another possibility for matches.
Just saw the above reply regarding UVM. Since St Michael’s is a definite safety for a kid from a private school with her stats, and she likes it, no need to have TCNJ. She may add one more safety she likes, it’s always good to feel you’re wanted.
I’d apply to safeties EA or rolling, and I’d start right away showing interest (ie., clicking on every email they send - yes, they track that; sending emails to admissions, asking questions for which the answer’s not obvious on the website, perhaps to be put in charge of the people who manage the ski club…)
We are going to add Siena, which like St. Michael’s does not have the safety school stigma I am told.
As for legacy, she is at Colgate and Notre Dame but as of now doesn’t want that boost. She is extremely independent.
I think UVM is a great choice for your daughter and another safety I might suggest would be Ithaca College
Why would a highly selective school admit lower qualified students in ED? It is not in there interests. They have no issue filling a class of 500 when they receive over 5,000 plus applications.
The answer to that is the schools are not. With ED they are admitting qualified kids and doing so to manage yield and also to ensure that they have kids at their school who truly love it. That’s a great thing for the mood of a school. ED rarely works for a kid who is reaching. But the reason why ED gives qualified kids a boost, is because they are competing with fewer applicants - the pool is smaller, thus chances of acceptance are higher. This is the truth, though @ScaredNYDad if the stats from your school point otherwise, I believe you, but think your school must be an outlier.
@ScaredNJDad, funny that you mentioned she has legacy at Colgate, because I was thinking it sounded like ust her kind of place and wondered why it wasn’t on her list!
@ScaredNJDad. If she likes BC , Lehigh and Holy Cross, she would likely like Colgate. Think about adding it as an insurance policy as the legacy is sure to help there. And at the end of the day if she were choosing between Siena and St Michael’s she may be happy to have Colgate as a choice.
But I really think she will end up having lots of happy choices!
At my son’s Catholic prep school, Siena is definitely considered a safety school but that might be because it is local to us.
@emilybee Yes at hers too but it doesn’t have that stigma. Look how many applications it gets for a school that size and being a very Catholic school. Highly unusual.
Well, tbh, I don’t know many schools that are stigmatized. Plenty of New York kids apply to and go to SUNY schools and no one thinks there is anything wrong with those schools.
I think applying EA to safety schools is a good move. I also think it’s good to have a few safeties, so that in a worst-case scenario where a kid only gets into safeties there is still a choice for them to make. My D was very happy to have a few very early EA safety acceptances – kind of takes the pressure off. She did ED at a selective LAC, but she really knew where she wanted to be and wanted it all settled in December. ED isn’t for everyone… also I agree with you that after you take away all the athletes and legacies and “hooked” applicants, ED does not give kids the bump that many think it does.
http://priceonomics.com/is-applying-early-decision-to-college-for-rich/
Here is a link to article about ED which references a study analyzing whether it increases chances. Found that after removing recruiting athletes, legacies and minorities from the pool, ED applicants still had an advantage - anywhere from 17% to 35% increased chances. It is like getting an extra 100 points on a 1600 pt SAT
Are you a heavy donor to Colgate and/or ND? If not, legacy may have little impact.