<p>IMO the cart has gotten way ahead of the horse. This is bassackwards. We don't have half the info we need to objectively look at chances (yes we have predictors but....) and there has been some concern about $. Take care of the $ side first. </p>
<p>OP, spend your time analyzing how much need aid at particular schools she is likely to get . Don't assume anything. Then look at alternative funding sources and scholarships (some schools have special loan programs for parents and students). </p>
<p>Then with that knowledge firmly in hand (and it will be ranges , not exact numbers) start building a list from the bottom up. She can go here if no help from the government or school. She can go here with anticipated government help. She can go here with anticipated government help and reasonably anticipated merit aid . As the numbers (rank, GPA, and scores) start to firm up , you constantly adjust your sights - upward or downward. </p>
<p>It does you zero good to concentrate of fine points of distinction between top 20 schools when you don't know that you can afford any of them or even if she is a reasonable candidate for admission. (Don't assume an over 1500 SAT or 34 ACT. That can be spirit killing. Boss, those are very rare scores. For anybody, no matter how smart. She MIGHT hit those, but like we've said before- don't add undo pressure.)</p>
<p>When finances are an issue it is absolutely imperative to build your list from the bottom up. (I think it is imperative anytime.) Find that school or two where she can be happy and you can write a check for the balance. </p>
<p>In our case , my D found an LAC with an automatic (at certain stats) scholarship that when added to her in-state auto-admit auto-scholarship safety gave her two schools that we knew, come hell or high water, she could attend and be (reasonably) happy. You can't believe how much weight that takes off your shoulders. Or how much stress that takes off the kid. Everything from there on in is gravy and for us at least the process became fun and exciting. </p>
<p>By the way. PPSP at Case is about as tough a program to get into as any in America. Case scholarships are very numbers driven and the numbers are spectacularly high. In addition to that, the numbers of Case's highest normally given scholarships (Trustee's) leave a substantial amount uncovered.</p>