<p>I agree odds are not 1 in 9.2 billion - someone who gets 5s on one AP is likely to get 5s on others. So far my son has gotten 5s on all the ones he's taken - Computer AB , Bio, US Hist, Physics C (M & E), Calculus BC. I'm pretty sure he'll get a 5 this year in Chemistry and Economics. I think he's got an excellent chance for a 5 in Latin. Of course he's no where near 13. :) It's still an impressive achievement.</p>
<p>
[quote]
but even so, I think there is only one kid that has 13 5s
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I don't believe that this is true. Is there any evidence for this claim? </p>
<p>The article itself seems to be mistaken about the extent of the accomplishment:
[quote]
Holmdel High School senior Allen Lin took all 13 of the advanced placement examinations offered by the College Board and scored a perfect five in each of them.
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There are 37 AP tests offered by College Board, not 13, so I'm not sure what the authors of the article mean when they say he received a 5 on "all" of the AP tests offered. I would argue that the amazing part of the accomplishment is not 13 5s, but that they were all completed by the end of his junior year (since he is currently a senior). I would guess that a significant number of students score 13 5s during their entire high school careers (I'm pretty confident I have friends that did), but reaching 13 before senior year truly is impressive.</p>
<p>As an additional note, his 13 5s would hardly guarantee him admission to a school like Stanford - I know people who were close to that level who were rejected - but judging from the rest of the article, I would be willing to guarantee that all his schools admit him. Reaching the International Biology Olympiad is probably enough in itself to do it.</p>
<p>My son #1 took 12 APs and got 5s on all of them. Daughter took 8 and got all 5s. Next son only took 4 but got 5s on all. Our school prepares kids really well, I guess.</p>
<p>And yes, there are a lot more than 15 APs available, just generally not all at one school.</p>
<p>yes, the amazing part about this kid is that his 13 tests were after junior year. but again, there is still a handful of kids in the country who are doing this. not everyone gets news stories for it. and i've seen the numbers for seniors go up almost to 20, so it's definitely possible. but it is very true that the school needs to offer a lot of AP courses for this to be possible. My school offers 22 AP classes, and I will have taken 17 or 18 tests by the end of this year. </p>
<p>It's funny....Stanford told me they don't look at AP scores as criteria for admission.... ;-)</p>
<p>This is not really that surprising looking at the high school. It is noteworthy, but considering most of the top students are taking 10+ AP's here, if you had ask me to guess which school a student had done this at, I could have narrowed it down to 3-4. The high school is at least 25% asian... 5x the national average. This community is known for high achieving, affluent, high pressure asian students who exist in that highest level of competition in NJ really. study, study, study...</p>
<p>fyi, the 1 in 9.2 billion statistic is just absurd. You can't use this kind of probability to describe an exam based on intellect (you can use probability to describe your odds of winning the lottery because it is random and you have no control over the outcome)</p>
<p>Holmdel is a wealthy town. I found their AP data interesting: out of 555 tests taken last year, 505 received a passing grade. 747 kids enrolled in APs and 555 sit for the test. (The numbers represent total enrollment, so the same kid can show up in the data multiple times.) Even with the "opt-out" effect on the passing rate, this is a very high success rate. You really can't compare it school by school without knowing if entry requirements for AP classes are in place or if schools require kids to sit for the exam. 36.5% of 11 &12th graders in Holmdel take APs. 86.7% of their graduates move on to 4 year colleges. The average SAT is 1764. Average teacher salary is $57,330, which is very close to the state average.</p>
<p>It's certainly not a typical school district.</p>
<p>The Siemen's Foundation found this to be unusual:
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Lin's extraordinary academic achievement earned him one of two national Siemens Awards for Advanced Placement and the $5,000 college scholarship that goes with it. </p>
<p>"That's amazing, isn't it? Five is perfect," said Jim Whaley, president of the Siemens Foundation, who added that he has never seen Lin's accomplishment duplicated in the eight years he has been associated with the Siemens Awards.
<p>Some of us have suggested that the likelihood of a student's getting more 5s on APs increase if the students already has a 5 on one AP in his/her field of strength. So, the odds shorten up to a point. But, as the student takes more and more APs exams, the odds are bound to lengthen. Can anyone suggest where this transition might occur and how it affects the overall odds?</p>
<p>Or, if you want to argue that a person has a 100% chance of getting a 5, the odds lengthen as soon as a person's chances to get a 5 dip below 100%.</p>
<p>The odds were never 13 billion to one to get 13 5s. 13% of the population gets a 5 on an AP test. This doesn't mean every single individual has a 13% chance of getting a 5, which was how the billion + odds were calculated.</p>
<p>Your son probably had over a 99% chance of getting a 5 on the math aps. The only thing that would have stopped him from getting a 5 on a completed test was an illness. That 99%, changes the odds for your son.</p>
<p>If I can't speak Spanish, my chances of getting a 5 on the AP Spanish test are zero. If there are enough of these tests where I have no chance of getting a 5, my chances of getting 13 5s may be infinite. Can't do it (which is the case). So the 13 billion to one odds overstate my chances. ;)</p>
<p>I guess it is possible to know 12 subjects incredibly well, so your chance of getting 12 5s is well in the 90+ percent category, and not knowing enough of the rest of the subjects to ever get another 5. Which makes your chances to get 13 5s....zero. </p>
<p>So you don't think that someone who scored a 5 on BC Calc is more likely than not to score a 5 on Physics C?</p>
<p>I agree that about the 99% chance not being the same as 100%. So, at what point do the chances lengthen more dramatically? Has it got to do with the number of tests in related fields or is it pure statistics?</p>